Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick told clients that the crypto market appears to have bottomed in the current cycle and pointed to three indicators that could confirm the reversal.
Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, said Bitcoin’s cycle low was $59,000, about 53% below its all-time high of $126,000. He added that Bitcoin has already moved above that level. On June 15, BTC traded at $66,660, according to CoinCodex.
Kendrick identified three benchmarks that could confirm a market reversal: Strategy reporting new Bitcoin purchases this week, Bitcoin ETFs recording positive inflows, and oil prices continuing to decline.
The first signal may already have appeared. Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted his usual chart on X, a move traders often interpret as a hint at another Bitcoin purchase.
The second signal also appeared to flash. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $85.84 million on June 12. Five of the thirteen U.S. funds saw inflows, while the remaining eight recorded no net flows.
Oil futures also fell for a second consecutive day, meeting Kendrick’s third condition.
The analyst ended his note with a clear message to clients: “Winter is over. Welcome to crypto spring.”
The bullish market call arrived as another event drew attention from traders. In early June, Strategy sold 32 BTC, its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The transaction appeared to contrast with Saylor’s long-standing “never sell Bitcoin” stance, which has helped shape the company’s image as one of the market’s most committed corporate Bitcoin holders.
However, Saylor addressed the sale at the BTC Prague conference. He said the company must preserve the ability to sell Bitcoin in order to support the value of its debt instruments and pay dividends on BTC-backed securities.
That means the 32 BTC sale does not necessarily mark a break from Strategy’s accumulation strategy. Instead, it appears to be part of the financial structure behind the company’s Bitcoin-backed securities and lending model.
What This Means For Bitcoin
Kendrick’s three signals all point to the same broader force: the macroeconomic backdrop.
Falling oil prices can reduce inflation pressure, which may lower the chance of further monetary tightening. That matters for Bitcoin because the asset has often traded more like a risk asset during periods shaped by inflation data and Federal Reserve rate expectations.
In that sense, Kendrick’s “crypto spring” may depend not only on crypto-native factors, but also on whether the broader macro environment continues to improve.
Strategy’s Bitcoin sale adds another layer to the outlook. The company’s purchases are often seen as bullish by the market, but even a small operational sale creates a new precedent. Traders may now watch more closely to see whether Strategy uses similar sales again to support its financing model.
For now, the Bitcoin recovery case has gained momentum. ETF inflows have returned, oil prices have eased, and Bitcoin remains above its cycle low. The next test is whether these signals can turn from short-term relief into a broader market reversal.
