Crude oil prices steadied Friday as traders weighed mounting Middle East supply risks against a sharp increase in U.S. inventories and weaker global demand forecasts. Brent crude futures traded at $87.08 a barrel at 2:47 a.m. GMT on Aug. 14, while West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $81.31, leaving both benchmarks on course for weekly gains of about 4%.
Oil remains caught between two powerful forces. The United States has warned that its naval blockade of Iran could continue indefinitely as ceasefire talks remain stalled, while Iran continues to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway carried about 20% of global oil flows before the conflict, making any prolonged disruption a major threat to supply.
At the same time, weakening demand expectations and rising U.S. inventories are limiting crude’s ability to extend its recent rally.
Brent Crude Faces Pressure Below Key Resistance
Brent’s short-term technical picture remains fragile after the market retreated from its recent highs. The supplied one-hour chart shows price rejected around $93.11 before pulling back toward a series of important support levels.
Brent Crude Support and Resistance Outlook. Source: Pinardeniz Xm on X
The chart, captured Aug. 13 using a spot Brent feed, marks $89.77 as the first important support, followed by $88.12 and a deeper zone around $86.81-$86.88. Those chart prices should be treated separately from Friday’s front-month Brent futures quote because the instruments and timestamps differ.
On the upside, Brent would need to recover above roughly $90.70-$91 before challenging $91.85. A sustained break above $91.85 could bring $93.11 back into focus, followed by the larger $95 resistance level.
Until then, the chart points to continued short-term pressure.
WTI Holds Above $79.50-$78 Demand Zone
WTI’s four-hour chart presents a more constructive scenario, with crude remaining above a clearly defined demand area despite the recent pullback.
WTI Crude Oil Demand Zone and Recovery Targets. Source: Jack Miller on X
The chart identifies $79.50-$78 as the main support zone. As long as that area holds, the setup leaves room for a recovery toward $82, followed by $84 if buyers regain momentum.
The chart’s more aggressive scenario eventually targets approximately $89.78, although WTI would need to clear several resistance levels before that target becomes technically convincing.
A break below $77.50 would invalidate the bullish setup shown on the chart and increase the risk of another leg lower.
Huge U.S. Inventory Build Caps Oil’s Upside
Fundamentals are giving traders a strong reason to remain cautious. U.S. commercial crude inventories surged 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, according to the Energy Information Administration. Crude imports also climbed to 7.3 million barrels per day, while total petroleum products supplied over the latest four-week period fell 2.1% from a year earlier.
Demand forecasts have also deteriorated. OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by only about 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, while the International Energy Agency forecasts demand will actually decline by 1.6 million barrels per day this year.
However, supply remains unusually tight. The IEA expects a 1.8 million-barrel-per-day global oil deficit in the third quarter, reflecting disrupted Middle East supply and restricted trade flows.
That leaves the crude oil outlook finely balanced. Geopolitical risks around Iran and Hormuz continue to support Brent and WTI, but huge U.S. inventories and deteriorating demand forecasts could restrain rallies unless supply disruptions intensify further.
