Bernstein Predicts BTC’s Market Cap Could Hit $3 Trillion by Mid 2025

Bitcoin's trajectory is nothing short of astounding, as brokerage firm Bernstein boldly predicts its transformation into a global macro political asset.

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts and skeptics alike have witnessed their fair share of cryptocurrency blunders, but a recent incident involving Bitcoin has raised eyebrows worldwide. In a jaw-dropping mistake, a Bitcoin user inadvertently paid an astonishing $3.1 million in transaction fees for a seemingly routine transfer of 139.42 BTC. This incident now stands as one of the costliest errors in Bitcoin's history, ranking as the eighth-highest transaction fee ever recorded.

In related news, Bitcoin's trajectory is nothing short of astounding, as brokerage firm Bernstein boldly predicts its transformation into a global macro political asset. A research report, released on Monday, sheds light on the remarkable journey that Bitcoin is poised to undertake. With a forecasted market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion by mid-2025, Bitcoin's fundamentals have never appeared stronger, driven in part by an astonishing statistic: 70% of the outstanding supply hasn't changed hands in the past year.

Bitcoin User Accidentally Pays $3.1 Million Transaction Fee in Latest Crypto Blunder

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, the headlines are often dominated by stories of astronomical gains, groundbreaking developments, and, unfortunately, costly mistakes. The latest chapter in this saga revolves around a Bitcoin user who inadvertently paid a staggering $3.1 million in transaction fees for a relatively modest transfer of 139.42 BTC. This incident now ranks as the eighth-highest transaction fee in Bitcoin's 14-year history, leaving the crypto community both baffled and intrigued.

The $3.1 Million Fee Fiasco

On Nov. 23, an individual using the Bitcoin wallet address "bc1qn3d…wekrnl" initiated a transfer of 139.42 BTC to another address, "bc1qyf…km36t4." However, what should have been a routine transaction turned into a costly mishap when the sender inadvertently attached a transaction fee of $3.1 million to it. As a result, the intended recipient received only 55.77 BTC, leaving everyone involved scratching their heads.

This eyebrow-raising transaction was confirmed and recorded in Bitcoin's blockchain by the mining pool Antpool on block 818087. The incredible magnitude of the transaction fee immediately drew attention from the cryptocurrency community, sparking a flurry of speculation and analysis.

Unpacking the Mystery

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts on social media platforms were quick to offer their opinions on the matter. Some suggested that the sender intentionally selected such a high transaction fee, possibly for reasons known only to them. However, the reality of the situation appears to be more complex, involving both a lack of awareness and an intriguing policy feature known as "replace-by-fee" (RBF).

RBF allows users to replace an unconfirmed transaction in the mempool, the queue where all Bitcoin transactions await approval and addition to the blockchain, with a different transaction that offers a higher transaction fee. This feature is designed to expedite the processing of transactions in times of network congestion. However, what the sender of the 139.42 BTC failed to realize is that RBF orders cannot be canceled.

Mempool developer "mononaut," who shares insights on cryptocurrency matters on the platform X (formerly known as Twitter), provided a possible explanation for the blunder. According to mononaut, it is highly likely that the user behind the transfer was unaware of the non-cancellation policy associated with RBF. In a misguided attempt to cancel the transaction, the user may have repeatedly replaced the fees, ultimately resulting in the eye-popping $3.1 million transaction fee. The RBF history of the transaction shows that the last fee replacement added an additional 12.54824636 BTC in fees.

A Costly Learning Experience

While this may not be the first time a Bitcoin user has accidentally incurred a jaw-dropping transaction fee, it certainly stands out as one of the most expensive mishaps in the cryptocurrency's history. In September, the cryptocurrency exchange platform Paxos made headlines when it mistakenly paid a $500,000 transaction fee for a $2,000 BTC transfer. Fortunately for Paxos, the F2Pool miner responsible for verifying the transaction had the integrity to return the accidental fee.

The $3.1 million transaction fee incident, however, has now claimed the dubious distinction of being the largest fee ever paid in dollar terms for a Bitcoin transaction. This hefty fee surpasses the previous record set by Paxos in September, catapulting the incident to the forefront of crypto news.

In terms of Bitcoin itself, the largest fee paid in the cryptocurrency's history occurred in 2016 when an individual accidentally sent a staggering 291 BTC in transaction fees. While costly mistakes are an inevitable part of the cryptocurrency landscape, they serve as important reminders for users to exercise caution and stay informed about the intricacies of the blockchain ecosystem.

As the cryptocurrency community continues to evolve and mature, such incidents also underscore the need for educational initiatives and user-friendly interfaces that help prevent costly errors and protect the assets of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. For now, the Bitcoin user behind the $3.1 million transaction fee is left with a costly lesson, and the cryptocurrency world is left with yet another captivating tale of intrigue and mishap in the digital realm of decentralized finance.

Bitcoin Predicted to Become a $3 Trillion Macropolitical Asset by Mid-2025, Says Bernstein

Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, is poised to transform into a global macro political asset, according to a research report released on Monday by brokerage firm Bernstein. The report predicts that Bitcoin's market capitalization will quadruple, surpassing $3 trillion by mid-2025. Analysts at Bernstein are bullish on Bitcoin, citing several factors contributing to its robust fundamentals.

One of the standout indicators highlighted by the report is the exceptional rate of Bitcoin supply retention. Currently, 70% of the total outstanding Bitcoin supply has remained untouched and untraded for the past year. This statistic represents an all-time high in Bitcoin's history and is particularly remarkable for a financial asset that has become synonymous with exponential price movements driven by supply scarcity. The report emphasizes the significance of this stable supply base as a foundation for Bitcoin's future growth.

Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin's ascent is the impending Bitcoin halving event, expected to occur in April or May of the following year. The halving is projected to substantially reduce the monthly selling pressure exerted by miners, decreasing it from the current estimate of around $1 billion to less than $500 million, given today's Bitcoin price of $37,000 per BTC. This reduction in selling pressure is expected to create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin's price appreciation.

The research report also points to favorable developments in accounting standards as a boon for Bitcoin adoption. New guidelines from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) will enable companies to recognize mark-to-market gains on their Bitcoin holdings. This accounting treatment is expected to incentivize more companies to consider Bitcoin as a treasury asset, thereby creating new sources of demand from the corporate sector.

A significant tailwind on the horizon is the potential approval of a U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Such an approval would streamline access to Bitcoin for both companies and retail investors. According to the report, a U.S. Bitcoin ETF is on a promising trajectory for approval in early 2024, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) actively engaging with leading asset managers on their applications.

Bitcoin's role as a hedge against currency debasement is also projected to gain prominence. The report highlights the possibility of debt monetization and a potentially severe economic slowdown in early 2024, exacerbated by an overcorrection of interest rates in response to inflation concerns. In such a scenario, Bitcoin's appeal as a safe haven and store of value is likely to increase, driving further adoption.

Price Overview

Daily chart for BTC/USDT (Source: TradingView)

BTC was changing hands at $37,325.38 at press time according to TradingView data. This was after the market leader was able to print a slight 0.08% gain over the past 24 hours of trading. The market leader was able to reach a high of $37,494.57 throughout the past day of trading. Since then, however, it has retraced slightly to trade closer to its daily low, which was situated at $37,251.51.