Solana Price Prediction: Is SOL Headed Toward $27 After Losing $77 Support?

Solana falls below key $77 support as on-chain data highlights weak demand and lower support zones ahead.

Tia Avet2 min read

3 June 2026, 10:31 AM

Solana has slipped back below $100, putting one of its most important price levels back in play. SOL was trading around $98.30 on Sept. 14, down roughly 2.2% on the day and about 4.7% over seven days as macro pressure and weaker ETF demand weighed on the market. tradingkey.com That makes $100 the immediate line to watch. Solana has already spent much of September testing this area, and Coinpaper recently highlighted the $97.70 breakout zone as the level separating a constructive recovery from a deeper pullback. Coinpaper What Happens Above $100? A convincing reclaim of $100 would not immediately put Solana back into a full bull trend. The first challenge sits around $106–$110, where previous price action and liquidation liquidity have created resistance. Beyond that, Coinpaper’s earlier technical work identified roughly $117–$120 as the next significant hurdle. Coinpaper That leaves a fairly clear roadmap: Scenario SOL level What it could mean Bearish $80–$85 $98 support fails and the correction deepens Base $95–$100 SOL remains stuck around the psychological level Bullish $106–$120 Buyers regain momentum Breakout Above $120 $145–$150 becomes a more realistic target A move above $100 would therefore be encouraging, but the stronger confirmation would come from clearing the $106–$120 resistance area. ETF Demand Has Started to Cool Institutional demand is also sending mixed signals. Solana ETFs have attracted roughly $1.3 billion in cumulative net inflows, while Bitwise’s BSOL recently became the first U.S. Solana ETF to cross $1 billion in assets. Coinpaper covered that $1 billion ETF milestone earlier this month. Coinpaper But the latest flows have become less consistent. Solana ETFs recorded about $11.7 million of inflows on Sept. 9, followed by small net outflows on Sept. 10 and Sept. 11. SolanaFloor That matters because the August rally above $100 coincided with stronger institutional buying. A renewed ETF inflow streak would make another SOL breakout easier to sustain. Solana’s Network Is Telling a Different Story The more unusual angle is that price weakness is arriving while parts of the Solana network continue expanding. The number of addresses holding tokenized equities on Solana reportedly crossed 800,000 on Sept. 12, up from roughly 425,000 at the start of September—an increase of about 88% in less than two weeks. CryptoRank That creates a useful divergence. SOL price momentum has cooled, yet adoption around tokenized stocks is accelerating. If that activity develops into lasting demand rather than a short-lived spike, the network story could eventually become a stronger fundamental tailwind. Coinpaper has also tracked how ETF momentum previously helped SOL defend $100, making the current combination of weaker flows and stronger network activity particularly worth watching. Coinpaper Can Solana Reach $120 Again? The setup is straightforward. Above $100: $106–$110 comes first. Above $110: $117–$120 becomes the major test. Above $120: roughly $145–$150 moves back into view. Below $97: downside risk increases toward $80–$85. For now, Solana is caught between improving network fundamentals and a tougher market backdrop.

Solana has slipped below the key $75-$77 support zone after on-chain data showed thin demand under that level. The breakdown now puts lower SOL support areas near $53, $35, and $27 in focus.

Solana Faces Critical $77 Support as On-Chain Data Reveals Thin Demand Below

Solana's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows a major concentration of investor holdings around the $77-$83 range, making it one of the most important support zones on the chart, according to analyst Ali Charts.

Solana URPD Analysis. Source: Glassnode / Ali Charts on X

The chart highlights large clusters of realized supply at $82.60 and $85.55, indicating that many SOL holders acquired their tokens near those levels. Another significant concentration appears around $79.65, reinforcing the broader support area near $77-$80.

According to Ali Charts, this distribution makes $77 a critical level for Solana. As long as price remains above it, the largest group of holders stays near breakeven or in profit.

However, the chart shows relatively little realized supply between $77 and lower price levels. This lack of demand concentration suggests there may be fewer support zones immediately below the current market.

If SOL loses the $77 level, the next major areas of interest appear near $53.10, $35.40, and $23.60, where larger clusters of historical buying activity are visible. These levels represent zones where previous investors accumulated substantial amounts of SOL and could potentially provide support.

The URPD model tracks where existing coins last moved on-chain, helping analysts identify price levels with significant holder concentration. In Solana's case, the data indicates that the $77-$83 region remains the key support area to watch.

Solana Chart Warns of Deeper Drop as $75 Support Breaks

Solana fell to around $73.77 on the weekly chart, slipping below the $75-$77 support area marked in earlier analysis. The chart shared by EllioTrades shows a downside projection toward the $27-$28 zone if SOL fails to reclaim the broken support.

Solana Weekly Breakdown Setup. Source: EllioTrades on X / TradingView

The chart marks nearby resistance around $83-$95, while the broken support area sits near $75.33-$75.36. SOL is now trading below that level, which weakens the short-term structure.

The large downside box points to the next major lower zone near $27.29-$27.62. That area aligns with previous long-term support from earlier Solana cycles.

For the bearish setup to weaken, SOL would need to reclaim $75-$77 first, then move back toward $83-$95. Until then, the chart keeps downside risk in focus.

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Tia Avet

Analyst, covering cryptocurrency markets, policy, and regulation. With over seven years of experience in business and marketing development, she has spent the past two years specializing in digital assets.