VanEck’s base case assumes a 15% annual growth rate driven by Bitcoin settling a meaningful share of international and domestic trade and serving as a hedge against monetary debasement, with alternative scenarios ranging from $130,000 to $52.4 million. At the same time, Wood said crypto is still strategically important for Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections and suggested the administration may eventually begin actively purchasing Bitcoin for a national reserve, moving beyond its current reliance on seized assets.
VanEck Predicts $2.9 Million Bitcoin
Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it turns into a widely used settlement currency for global trade and becomes part of central bank reserve portfolios. This is according to analysts at asset manager VanEck.
The forecast assumes a 15% compounded annual growth rate and is based on Bitcoin settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade, by mid-century. The projection was shared by VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush.
Bitcoin prediction from VanEck analysts
The analysts argue that Bitcoin’s long-term value is less dependent on short-term price movements and more tied to its role as a hedge against structural weaknesses in the global financial system. They described Bitcoin not as a tactical investment, but as a long-duration hedge against adverse monetary regime outcomes, driven by ongoing global liquidity expansion and monetary debasement. While short-term price action may be influenced by liquidity cycles and leverage, they believe long-term value accrual will come from Bitcoin’s alignment with the growing strain on sovereign debt systems.
Under VanEck’s base-case scenario, central banks could eventually allocate up to 2.5% of their total assets to Bitcoin. At a price of $2.9 million, Bitcoin will represent about 1.66% of total global financial assets. The firm also shared alternative outcomes, including a bear case that assumes a 2% CAGR, which would place Bitcoin closer to $130,000 by 2050, and a bull case that assumes a 20% CAGR, resulting in a price as high as $52.4 million.
BTC price action over the past 5 years (Source: CoinCodex)
Bitcoin is already being used in global trade in certain regions, particularly in sanctioned countries like Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, though adoption is still minimal among G7 economies. VanEck’s model suggests that if Bitcoin were to capture a 5% to 10% share of international trade settlement, it will be used at a level comparable to major fiat currencies today.
Data from SWIFT shows that the U.S. dollar accounted for 47.8% of international trade as of September 2025, followed by the euro at 22.8% and the British pound at 7.4%. The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan followed with shares of 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Under VanEck’s assumptions, Bitcoin’s trade usage would place it alongside the British pound in terms of global settlement relevance.
Trump May Start Buying Bitcoin
Meanwhile, Cathie Wood said crypto is still a politically important issue for Donald Trump as he approaches midterm elections, which could affect the development of a US Bitcoin reserve. Speaking on a recent episode of the Bitcoin Brainstorm podcast, Wood suggested the federal government may soon move beyond simply holding seized digital assets and begin actively purchasing Bitcoin for a national strategic reserve that was established by executive order early in Trump’s second term.
Wood said that, so far, the reserve has only consisted of Bitcoins that were seized through government forfeitures, and Trump pledged not to sell. She said there has been hesitation around outright purchases, but explained that the original goal behind the reserve was to eventually accumulate as many as one million Bitcoins. Based on that original intent, Wood said she expects the federal government to begin buying Bitcoin rather than relying solely on confiscated assets.
According to Wood, Trump’s support for crypto is driven by both political and personal considerations. She pointed to his family’s growing exposure to the crypto industry and argued that the crypto community played a meaningful role in his electoral victory. Wood added that Trump is motivated to avoid becoming a lame-duck president and sees crypto policy as a way to deliver tangible progress during the remainder of his term.
The crypto industry has become a major political force in recent election cycles. In addition to political action committees like Stand With Crypto, which donated heavily to candidates across the political spectrum, several well known industry figures publicly endorsed Trump and contributed directly to his campaign, including Wood herself.
Crypto executives have also taken on a more visible role in Washington, with industry leaders offering policy input and the White House hosting events focused on digital assets. Major firms like Coinbase, Tether, and Ripple also contributed funding toward a new White House ballroom.
While the bitcoin reserve currently functions primarily as a holding mechanism similar to how gold is treated as a strategic asset, the executive order from Trump directs the Treasury and Commerce Departments to explore budget-neutral ways to add more Bitcoin. No such purchases have been made to date. Beyond reserve policy, Wood said the administration is likely to push for a de minimis tax exemption that would eliminate capital gains taxes on small crypto transactions.
