Markets are bracing for the November 25 U.S. PPI print, and the timing aligns with visible stress in Bitcoin order books. New liquidity data shows heavy sell-side supply sitting between 80,000 and 90,000 dollars, while whale cohorts continue to reduce their bid support.Together, the macro backdrop and the declining liquidity create a fragile setup for crypto.
PPI Arrives on November 25 as Forecast Holds at 2.7 Percent
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October Producer Price Index today at 8:30 a.m. ET, with both headline and core PPI expected at 2.7 percent year over year. These estimates remain unchanged across major economic calendars and reflect a stable producer-inflation outlook.
PPI Expectations Powell Briefing. Source: Whale Everything
However, markets rarely remain calm ahead of a major inflation print. Because PPI often leads CPI, even a small deviation from the 2.7 percent consensus can influence expectations for the December FOMC meeting. As a result, traders enter the release with caution and reduce exposure in risk assets, including Bitcoin.
At the same time, U.S. macro data continues to drive positioning across the crypto market. When inflation surprises higher, Bitcoin typically pulls back as Treasury yields rise. When PPI surprises lower, liquidity flows into risk assets more quickly. Today’s release, therefore, carries direct implications for near-term volatility.
Bitcoin Order Books Show Heavy Sell Walls Ahead of PPI
The Material Indicators chart, which covers November 13 to November 25 and highlights a steady increase in sell-side liquidity above the 90,000-dollar zone. Thick red bands show clustered limit orders ready to absorb upward moves, which signals that sellers actively defend higher prices.
BTC Liquidity Heatmap And CVD. Source: Material Indicators/X
During the same period, Bitcoin trended lower from roughly 97,000 dollars on November 13 to the 85,000–88,000-dollar range by November 22, where it stabilized only slightly before the PPI release window. The heatmap suggests that buyers failed to break major liquidity layers at each bounce, forcing price into repeated rejections.
Furthermore, bright yellow blocks near 80,000–82,000 dollars reflect strong liquidity pools below the market. These areas often become magnets during macro uncertainty, especially when trader sentiment turns cautious ahead of economic data.
Whale CVD Data Shows Heavy Distribution Into the Dip
The CVD panel shows how different buyer classes behaved from November 13 to November 25. The 1 million to 10 million-dollar cohort (orange) sold aggressively throughout the period, with notable declines on November 16, November 19, and November 22. This group typically influences short-term trend direction, so sustained selling adds pressure.
Meanwhile, 100,000 to 1 million-dollar buyers (purple) also reduced net positioning across the same window. Their CVD dropped sharply between November 18 and November 21, confirming that mid-sized buyers stepped back instead of absorbing panic selling.
In contrast, smaller cohorts—particularly 100 to 1,000 dollars (red)—remained steady. Retail buyers often buy dips, but they rarely offset whale distribution. As a result, order-flow imbalance persists, and liquidity leans downward ahead of today’s macro catalyst.
How Today’s PPI Could Impact Bitcoin
If PPI comes above 2.7 percent, sell walls between 88,000 and 90,000 dollars may strengthen as traders price in tighter policy. In this case, Bitcoin could revisit liquidity near the 80,000–82,000-dollar zone shown in the heatmap.
If PPI matches expectations at 2.7 percent, Bitcoin may remain range-bound until CPI or the December FOMC meeting delivers stronger direction.
If PPI prints below 2.7 percent, order-book resistance may thin temporarily, allowing Bitcoin to retest liquidity toward 90,000–92,000 dollars, though whale CVD trends still point to profit-taking on rallies.
