Bitcoin continues to face strong selling pressure after falling below its 365-day moving average at $102,000. The level has acted as a cycle indicator in previous downturns, including the 2018 and 2021 bear markets. Analysts say the breakdown last week has raised questions about a possible shift in market momentum.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at around $91,974, suggesting a 0.82% increase in the last 24 hours.
The market mood reflects that concern. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 10, mirroring panic conditions last seen in early and mid-2022. Over the past month, more than $700 billion has been wiped from the broader crypto market. The sharp reversal comes after Bitcoin’s second drop below $100,000 within a week, a move that triggered a wave of alarms across trading desks.
On-chain signals strengthen those concerns. Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price for coins held for six to twelve months, which sits near $94,600. This group represents conviction buyers who typically accumulate in bullish phases. Trading below their cost basis suggests growing unrealized losses and the potential for forced selling if pressure intensifies.
Futures markets also show rising stress. Perpetual futures open interest saw its largest weekly jump since April, adding more than $3.3 billion. Many traders placed dip-buying orders as Bitcoin slipped under $98,000. Those orders filled as the price dropped, adding leveraged long positions into a declining market and increasing liquidation risk if the downtrend continues.
Technical Signals Split Analysts
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has added weight to the bearish view. He pointed to a sweeping reversal pattern on November 11, followed by eight sessions of lower highs and the formation of a broadening top. His projected downside targets are $81,000 and $58,000. These levels align with prior structural support zones that marked key turning points in earlier cycles.
Still, not all indicators confirm the start of a full bear market. Several analysts argue that Bitcoin is experiencing a mid-cycle breakdown, a period of instability within a longer bullish trend. They say the market needs additional confirmation before declaring a broader trend reversal. The next phase will depend on whether selling pressure accelerates and whether key support levels hold.
Despite weak sentiment, one trend challenges the bearish narrative. Whale accumulation has increased during the decline. Addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have grown in number, suggesting that large investors and institutions view current prices as attractive. This behavior has historically aligned with accumulation zones rather than capitulation phases.
Macro Liquidity Counters Bearish Bias
Macro conditions offer further support for the bullish case. Global liquidity remains high, with more than 80% of central banks currently easing policy. Broad monetary loosening has often benefited risk assets, and cryptocurrencies typically react strongly to expanding liquidity. Analysts point to the present environment as similar to pre-bull markets, where short-term corrections occurred even as liquidity conditions improved.
Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows rising credit growth. US dollar credit expanded 6% year-over-year through the second quarter of 2025, while euro credit rose 13%. Expanding credit availability has historically supported asset valuations and increased market resilience during periods of volatility.
Many macro strategists argue that as long as central banks continue to cut rates and increase liquidity, risk assets retain structural support. They note that cryptocurrencies, as frontier assets, tend to experience amplified gains during liquidity cycles. The current backdrop aligns with those past patterns.
