In This Article
Bitcoin trades near $92,591 after a choppy month that erased over 10%. Traders debate whether the market has already printed a local bottom or if more downside hides below the surface. The rebound looks impressive, but does it signal a sustainable shift? That question drives much of the current market mood.
Institutions Build Reserves as the Market Cools
Strategy, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-holding company, now holds a $1.44 billion cash reserve. This move signals confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term path while preparing for short-term turbulence. The company no longer expands exposure through aggressive stock issuance. It prioritizes liquidity instead.
CryptoQuant suggests this shift creates a stronger buffer against forced selling during downturns. Julio Moreno even outlines a scenario where Bitcoin trades in a $70,000–$55,000 range if sentiment worsens in 2026. The possibility feels uncomfortable, but traders appreciate honest models.
This raises a simple question. Do institutions know something or do they simply value caution in an uncertain macro cycle?
Seller Exhaustion Emerges After a Violent Flush
Bitfinex highlights “seller exhaustion” after a $19B leverage flush cleared stretched positions across the market. Traders witnessed heavy capitulation, followed by a strong 8% rebound.
Key observations from Bitfinex:
Leverage dropped to healthier levels
Forced liquidations cooled
Short-term holders already capitulated
Bitcoin even jumped toward $94K, showing that buyers still defend key levels when fear peaks. A cleaner leverage base now supports the idea of steadier consolidation.
Yet the larger question remains: Is this the beginning of a structural recovery or just a relief bounce?
Macro Liquidity Turns into a Central Narrative
Cathie Wood expects relief soon as liquidity pressures fade. She points to three factors:
Federal Reserve could end quantitative tightening
Government spending resumes after the shutdown
Cash drains begin to reverse
ARK Invest continues buying crypto equities aggressively. Over $93M went into the market in a single day. Interesting timing, right? Smart money seems to act before a shift becomes obvious to the broader market.
CFTC Opens a Pathway for Regulated Spot Crypto Trading
A historic announcement from the CFTC changes the regulatory landscape. Bitnomial will launch the first leveraged U.S. spot crypto exchange under federal oversight. For the first time, retail and institutional traders will access compliant spot trading with unified margining.
Traders welcome:
Equal order routing
No hidden liquidity advantages
Reduced counterparty risks
Clarity on compliance
This change could attract capital that avoided offshore exchanges since the FTX collapse. Regulatory clarity often creates demand.
ETF Flows Reveal Mixed Market Sentiment
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $14.9M outflow, breaking a five-day inflow streak. Yet BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a $42.24M inflow, showing selective institutional accumulation.
Meanwhile:
Ether ETFs gained $140M
Solana ETFs recorded $32M in outflows
This divergence reflects risk-rotation behavior. Traders move between majors as volatility shifts.
Technical Picture: Bitcoin Tests Critical Trendlines
Bitcoin approaches a descending trendline after breaking its long-term ascending structure at $97K. Bulls and bears argue daily about the implications.
Source: X
Key resistance levels:
$95,200
$99,000
$107,000
Important supports:
$84,100
$75,100
$74,000
A break above $95.2K restores confidence. A drop below $84K triggers caution.
| Month (2025) | Minimum Price | Average Price | Maximum Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 (full-year) | $80,000 | $110,000 | $155,000 |
| December 2025 | $90,000 | $120,000 | $160,000 |
