Mike Alfred says Washington will only act once foreign governments make the first move, even as analysts argue that delaying could put the US at a strategic disadvantage. At the same time, the Marshall Islands is moving in the opposite direction, and is actively integrating digital assets into public services through its new Lomalo wallet and USDM1-powered UBI program.
US Will Move Once Others Buy BTC
The debate over whether the United States should begin accumulating Bitcoin for a national reserve is intensifying, with several people in the crypto industry warning that the country risks falling behind other nations. Crypto entrepreneur Mike Alfred said on a podcast that was released Tuesday that the US government is unlikely to take any meaningful action until other countries make the first move.
This suggests that external pressure will be the catalyst for the United States to start buying Bitcoin in earnest. According to Alfred, the government will only accelerate its plans “when there is enough pressure externally,” as Washington tends to respond quickly when it sees geopolitical competitors gaining an advantage.
His comments come as people in the crypto industry call on the US to speed up the formation of its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which is a framework that was initiated by President Donald Trump earlier this year via executive order. The goal of the initiative is to accumulate BTC using budget-neutral mechanisms, though the structure of the program remains undefined.
Alfred said the timeline for full implementation is still unclear, but he believes progress has already been made, and pointed out that just a few years ago it “seemed impossible that the government would even acknowledge Bitcoin before Trump.”
A growing chorus of analysts and executives argue that delaying accumulation could leave the US at a strategic disadvantage. Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn said in September that there is a “strong chance” the government will announce this year that it is formally holding Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Meanwhile, Jan3 founder Samson Mow repeatedly pushed for the US to act quickly, and warned that it could be “front-run” by countries like Pakistan that are preparing their own Bitcoin acquisition plans.
Alfred also reiterated his belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value by predicting the asset will reach $1 million per coin by 2033. While this estimate is more conservative than forecasts from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Alfred said that by the time Bitcoin reaches that level, “almost every government will have some direct or indirect exposure” and the asset will be widely viewed as a strategic reserve instrument.
As momentum builds globally for Bitcoin adoption at the state level, pressure is mounting on the US government to define its role. For now, industry experts suggest that Washington may wait for another nation to make the first big move.
Digital UBI Debuts in Marshall Islands
Outside the US, the Republic of the Marshall Islands took a major step toward integrating digital assets into public services with the launch of Lomalo, a government-issued digital wallet that is designed to distribute Universal Basic Income (UBI) to citizens. The initiative will use USDM1 — a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar — to provide residents with access to their UBI funds starting in late November. Citizens will be able to receive their payments through the Lomalo wallet, via physical checks, or through direct deposits, ensuring both traditional and modern financial rails are available.
Finance minister David Paul said that adding a digital option strengthens the country’s financial infrastructure and helps ensure that “no community is left behind.” The Marshall Islands joins other Pacific nations exploring blockchain-powered financial tools, following programs like Palau’s stablecoin pilot for government workers and the Solomon Islands’ Bokolo Cash, which supports everyday peer-to-peer transactions and retail purchases in the capital, Honiara.
Marshall Islands
According to the government, only citizens enrolled in the UBI program can currently create a Lomalo wallet, though they can transfer funds to other registered users. The rollout is the nation’s latest effort to modernize its financial system, but it also follows a series of warnings from the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF has long urged the Marshall Islands to scale back or delay its digital asset ambitions, particularly its earlier central bank digital currency proposal known as SOV. In a 2023 notice, the IMF said plans for a “digital sovereign bond” carried significant risks that could not be mitigated due to the country’s limited institutional capacity. The organization also warned that expanding digital initiatives — including DAOs, recognized as legal entities by the Marshall Islands in 2022 — could result in macroeconomic and financial stability concerns. It added that deploying the untested USDM1 for a nationwide UBI program could have “adverse macro-fiscal and financial integrity implications,” and recommended a more targeted approach focusing on citizens most in need.
(Source: Republic of the Marshall Islands)
Responding to the IMF’s concerns, Paul said the government is still in active discussions with the fund about both the UBI rollout and the use of USDM1. He explained that the digital sovereign bond is issued under New York law and backed 1:1 by short-term US Treasuries held in a bankruptcy-remote account with a qualified US custodian. He argued that the structure aligns with IMF-supported frameworks for collateralized sovereign obligations and was intentionally designed to mirror historical mechanisms like Brady bonds rather than resemble privately issued crypto tokens.
Despite the warnings, the Marshall Islands is continuing down a path toward digital asset integration.
