On the night of July 14, the price of the first cryptocurrency updated its historical maximum, exceeding the mark of $120,000. The growth since the beginning of the month amounted to 13%.
The rally is supported by institutional investors. The assets under management of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT exceeded $84 billion. The fund reached that volume in 200 trading days, while the GLD gold ETF took 15 years to do so.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $122,547 (+3.6% overnight), according to CoinGecko.
Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, emphasized that IBIT has crossed the $80 billion mark the fastest in the history of exchange-traded funds.
Since April, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US amounted to $16.2 billion. According to BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas, more than 6% of the entire market capitalization of digital gold is now concentrated in these instruments, which indicates "deep conviction among institutional investors."
Regulatory Expectations and Macroeconomic Factors
The market is also reacting to positive expectations from "crypto week" in the US. Lawmakers will consider several key bills, including the CLARITY Act, which should delineate the authority of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing digital assets, and the GENIUS Act, which creates a legal framework for stablecoins.
10x Research analyst Markus Thielen thinks that the first cryptocurrency has transformed from a technology asset to a macroeconomic one—a hedge against US budget problems. He believes the recent $5 trillion increase in the national debt ceiling and rising budget deficits are strengthening the cryptocurrency's position.
No one is talking about blockchain options anymore. Bitcoin has become a defense against uncontrolled budget deficits. Along with gold, it is now the main line of defense against the looming financial crisis, Thielen said.
What On-Chain Metrics Say
Data from the network points to the potential for further upside. The NUPL metric for long-term holders is at 0.69, below the euphoria threshold of 0.75. The market spent 228 days above that mark in the last cycle, only 30 days in the current cycle.
Activity on the Bitcoin network also remains moderate. The average number of daily transactions has risen to 364,000, but this is well below the peaks of 530,000–666,000 seen at past market tops.
"There are no signs of active coin selling in the market. This reinforces both the fundamental and technical bullish signal," explained analyst Axel Adler Jr.
According to CryptoQuant, hoarding addresses that only buy Bitcoin have increased activity by 71% over the past month. They now hold 250,000 BTC—the highest since 2024.
Analysts' Forecasts
Experts expect the uptrend to continue. Lucas predicts movement to the range of $125,000–128,000 in the short term. Jeff May, chief operating officer of the BTSE exchange, believes the price will reach $125,000 within one to two months.
A more optimistic forecast was given by OSL's chief commercial officer Eugene Cheung. He believes the asset could rise to $130,000–150,000 by the end of the year.
Ledn CEO John Glover said that the price of Bitcoin will reach $136,000 by the end of this year. He believes that the rally of the first cryptocurrency has a basis for continuation.
According to him, the breakthrough of the recent highs confirmed the completion of the corrective movement. Glover sees the June drop to $96,000 as a pullback of "wave (ii)" within the larger "wave 5".
Ledn's CEO noted that the ultimate target for the end of the bull cycle has not changed, but the timeline has shortened.
"Previously I expected it in the first quarter of 2026, but now it looks like we will reach $136,000 by the end of the year," he explained.
