After weeks of intense debate and political maneuvers, Donald Trump’s sweeping $4.5 trillion tax and spending package, known as “One Big Beautiful Bill”, has cleared both chambers of Congress. The bill passed the Senate on July 1 with a razor-thin 51–50 vote and was narrowly approved by the House on July 3 with a 218–214 vote. The legislation is now headed to President Trump’s desk for signing, expected later today, July 4.
What’s in the Big Beautiful Bill? The GENIUS Act
The bill holds key elements of Trump’s second-term agenda. It permanently extends most of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, boosts funding for border security, defense, and energy production, and enacts significant cuts to Medicaid and nutrition programs such as SNAP. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add approximately $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, though Republicans dispute these projections.
A notable inclusion is the GENIUS Act – “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins.” The stablecoin provision creates the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring:
- 1:1 reserve backing in dollar, treasury bills, or similar high-quality assets,
- regular public disclosures and annual audits,
- strict AML/KYC compliance, and oversight split between federal and state regulators.
Essentially, the GENIUS Act aims to safeguard the dollar’s dominance, bring regulatory clarity to digital finance, and facilitate faster and cheaper payments.
„Once the GENIUS Act is law, businesses of all sizes and Americans across the country will be able to settle payments nearly instantaneously, rather than waiting for days or sometimes even weeks. Put simply, stablecoins are a paradigm-shifting development that can bring our payment system into the 21st century,” said Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, the GENIUS Act’s primary sponsor and co-author.
Bitcoin outlook – analyst perspectives and possible scenarios
Market experts are divided on the bill’s impact on cryptocurrencies. The GENIUS Act is seen as reinforcing regulatory frameworks that bolster confidence in the US dollar and traditional financial systems. By imposing stricter rules on stablecoins, the bill could reduce crypto market volatility and systemic risks linked to unbacked digital assets. However, according to some opinions, the act is debilitating stablecoin issuers and keeping them uncompetitive against „legacy system products.”
But there are more factors at play. With the Big Beautiful Bill now law, crypto markets face a complex mix of potential outcomes. Here’s a general overview of what may happen.
Bitcoin as an inflation hedge
The bill’s massive addition to the national deficit raises concerns about sustained inflation, which could boost demand for Bitcoin as a “digital gold” hedge against fiat currency debasement.
Mixed short-term market reaction
Despite the fiscal stimulus, historical data shows that US debt ceiling increases don’t consistently lead to Bitcoin price gains. Cointelegraph highlights that Bitcoin’s price has remained flat following past debt ceiling hikes, suggesting that markets may have already priced in these developments.
No tax breaks fueling crypto adoption
Unfortunately, the Big Beautiful Bill passed without any crypto tax relief or comprehensive crypto tax reforms, despite strong lobbying efforts and proposals like Senator Cynthia Lummis’s crypto tax amendment. This leaves ongoing tax complexity and uncertainty for crypto users.
Risks from rising interest rates
The expanding deficit could push interest rates higher, making riskier assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. This dynamic may temper longer-term crypto market enthusiasm despite initial gains.
Regulatory outlook
While the bill does not directly regulate cryptocurrencies, upcoming Congressional sessions (Crypto Week starting July 14) will review related legislation like the GENIUS Act, which could further shape the regulatory environment.
Wrapping it up, crypto markets may see a short-term boost from tax incentives and inflation fears but face headwinds from fiscal concerns and potential regulatory tightening. The evolving policy landscape will be critical to watch in the coming months.
