Following the conclusion of Ripple's multi-year legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), attention within the crypto industry is shifting to the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) and long-term price projections for the token. With the legal uncertainty largely resolved, analysts and firms like Bitwise are weighing the possibilities for XRP's future — from a potential surge in value driven by institutional adoption and real-world asset tokenization, to more conservative or bearish scenarios if those opportunities fail to materialize.
XRP ETF Optimism Surges as Ripple-SEC Legal Battle Ends, Community Bets on 2025 Approval
The crypto community is abuzz with renewed optimism over the potential approval of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for XRP, following the long-awaited conclusion of Ripple’s landmark legal battle with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After more than three years of court proceedings, Ripple has finally emerged victorious, setting the stage for what many believe could be the next major milestone for the digital asset: the launch of an XRP ETF.
On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced on X that the SEC had officially dropped its appeal in the case against the company. The lawsuit, which began in December 2020, alleged that Ripple had conducted a $1.3 billion unregistered securities offering by selling XRP tokens. The case cast a long shadow over Ripple and XRP’s potential in the US financial markets, creating legal uncertainty that hindered institutional adoption.
The conclusion of the lawsuit has reignited speculation around the regulatory path forward for XRP, particularly the possibility of an ETF backed by the token.
Shortly after the case was dropped, Nate Geraci, president of advisory firm ETF Store, took to X to declare that an XRP ETF now appears inevitable.
Geraci, a prominent voice in the ETF industry, also speculated that financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity could be among the first asset managers to file for or manage an XRP ETF. These firms have already shown substantial interest in crypto-backed ETFs, most notably through their filings and involvement with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF applications.
If history repeats itself, XRP could be the next major crypto asset to gain ETF approval, potentially joining the ranks of Bitcoin and Ethereum in regulated investment products.
The bullish sentiment around a potential XRP ETF is not limited to crypto insiders. On decentralized prediction market Polymarket, bettors are placing significant wagers on the approval of an XRP ETF by the end of 2025. As of March 26, Polymarket showed an 86% probability that the SEC will greenlight an XRP ETF before Dec. 31 of this year.
However, when it comes to short-term expectations, the outlook is more reserved. Polymarket users only gave a 42% chance that the ETF would be approved before July 31, suggesting that while optimism is high for 2025, traders anticipate a slower regulatory process in the first half of the year.
Despite being a gambling site, Polymarket has built a strong reputation for accurate forecasting. Data from a Dune Analytics dashboard indicates that Polymarket predictions have historically had over 90% accuracy a month prior to market resolution — giving added weight to the platform’s current odds.
Price Action Muted Despite Major Win
Surprisingly, XRP’s price reaction to the legal victory was relatively muted.
According to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at blockchain analytics firm Nansen, the modest price action was likely due to the legal resolution already being priced in by investors.
This reaction echoes broader crypto market behavior, where even significant news can often be front-run by insider speculation or reflected early in price movements.
With the regulatory cloud lifting, Ripple may now be able to pursue more aggressive expansion plans in the US and abroad. The company has long argued that XRP is not a security and has advocated for clearer digital asset regulations. The case’s conclusion may now serve as a precedent in future crypto-SEC disputes, especially regarding the classification of tokens.
More immediately, attention will shift to whether Ripple or a third-party asset manager files for an XRP ETF. If Geraci’s forecast is correct and firms like BlackRock or Fidelity jump into the ring, XRP could soon have the legitimacy and market access that only regulated ETFs can provide.
An ETF would offer traditional investors a seamless way to gain exposure to XRP without needing to hold or manage the token directly. This could open the floodgates to institutional capital and spark a new growth cycle for XRP — especially if macro conditions and regulatory clarity continue to improve.
Bitwise Predicts XRP Could Soar to $29 by 2030 in Best-Case Scenario, But Warns of Collapse to $0.13 if Adoption Fails
In related news, Bitwise, a leading cryptocurrency index fund manager, has released a bold price forecast for XRP, estimating that the Ripple-affiliated token could reach an eye-watering $29.32 by the end of this decade. However, the firm also cautioned that XRP could just as easily plummet to $0.13 if the blockchain fails to secure traction in key target markets, including payments and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
The wide-ranging forecast was based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), a traditional financial valuation framework adapted to assess cryptocurrency valuations in emerging sectors like blockchain infrastructure and tokenized finance.
Bitwise’s most optimistic projection envisions XRP securing a “meaningful” share of the global payments and tokenization markets. Under this “max scenario,” XRP’s market cap would balloon to $2.9 trillion by 2030 — surpassing even Microsoft’s current valuation of $2.89 trillion and making XRP one of the most valuable digital assets in history.
This level of growth would require XRP to become a critical backbone for institutional-grade payments and tokenized financial instruments, potentially powering transactions across banks, central banks, fintechs, and decentralized finance ecosystems alike.
In such a scenario, XRP would be priced at $29.32 — a staggering leap from its current valuation hovering below $3. Bitwise believes this outcome, while ambitious, could materialize if Ripple succeeds in expanding XRPL (XRP Ledger) adoption among major financial institutions and if tokenization becomes a core pillar of the next generation financial infrastructure.
While the “max scenario” projects a massive price explosion, Bitwise’s “bull scenario” offers a more conservative yet still bullish outcome. In this case, XRP could reach $12.70 by 2030. This forecast assumes continued growth of the XRP network with steady user adoption and infrastructure improvements — but without XRP gaining dominant market share in either payments or tokenization.
In other words, XRP would still thrive as a utility token with real use cases, but not become the central player in cross-border transactions or the asset tokenization boom.
This scenario also requires minimal regulatory or technical setbacks, especially in maintaining the XRPL’s speed, cost-efficiency, and decentralization.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Bitwise’s bear scenario paints a grim picture: if XRP fails to penetrate the payments or tokenization industries and institutional enthusiasm for the XRPL dwindles, the token’s price could collapse to as low as $0.13 by the end of the decade.
Bitwise’s outlook factors in the potential XRP ETF, which could act as a powerful catalyst for price appreciation. The firm itself filed for an XRP ETF in October and has since maintained that regulatory approval is only a matter of time.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store and a vocal advocate for crypto ETFs, recently said that firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are likely to enter the XRP ETF race as well. This would follow their participation in the spot Bitcoin ETF market, which gained traction after the SEC approved several applications in early 2024.
With the legal uncertainties largely resolved and increasing attention from major financial players, the stage could be set for a regulatory green light that ushers XRP into the ETF spotlight — a move that could significantly increase its exposure to institutional and retail investors.
Tokenization: The Multi-Trillion-Dollar Opportunity
Bitwise’s projections are grounded in the idea that tokenization — the conversion of real-world assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities into blockchain-based digital tokens — will be a multi-trillion-dollar industry by 2030.
Should XRP and the XRP Ledger become one of the key infrastructures for this tokenized financial future, the upside potential is massive. Ripple’s long-standing relationships with banks and payment providers, coupled with XRPL’s reputation for speed and low transaction fees, position it well in this emerging sector.
However, competition is fierce. Ethereum, Solana, and newer tokenization-focused chains are all vying for dominance. Whether XRP can carve out a sizable niche remains to be seen.
