As the cryptocurrency industry adapts to shifting regulatory landscapes and evolving market demands, major players are making strategic moves to position themselves for growth. Robinhood has launched a new prediction markets hub through its futures subsidiary, allowing users to speculate on political, economic, and sports outcomes. Meanwhile, Gemini has appointed Dan Chen as its new Chief Financial Officer (CFO) as the exchange considers an initial public offering and navigates a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the Trump administration.
Robinhood Expands into Prediction Markets with Futures-Focused Hub
Robinhood Derivatives, the futures arm of the crypto-friendly financial platform Robinhood, has launched a new prediction markets hub within its app. The platform will initially focus on politics, economics, and sports, with plans to expand coverage over time, according to Robinhood CEO and Co-Founder Vladimir Tenev.
The move marks another significant step in Robinhood’s expansion beyond traditional financial trading, bringing a new wave of user engagement through event-based forecasting. The platform's latest endeavor is powered by Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market operator that will facilitate Robinhood’s new contracts.
Tenev took to X to emphasize the broader purpose of prediction markets, calling them a fusion of "capitalism and the pursuit of truth."
“Market incentives and the wisdom of the crowds sift through all the information out there to determine answers to well-specified questions and outcomes to important events—sometimes even before they happen,” Tenev wrote.
Robinhood Derivatives is no stranger to futures contracts, particularly in the realm of politics. Before the launch of this dedicated hub, the platform allowed users to speculate on the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election. This move positioned it alongside competitors like the decentralized prediction market Polymarket and Kalshi, which now plays a key role in Robinhood’s latest initiative.
The surge in interest surrounding the 2024 election was unprecedented, highlighting the growing demand for political betting markets. On Polymarket alone, traders placed over $3 billion in bets on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would win the presidency by Nov. 4, 2024. This overwhelming engagement suggests that event-based futures trading is becoming a significant force in financial markets.
While Robinhood and Kalshi are pushing forward with the expansion of prediction markets, the industry continues to face regulatory scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The agency has long debated the legality and potential consequences of allowing US-based exchanges to offer election-based contracts.
The CFTC and Kalshi have been in legal disputes over whether contracts predicting election outcomes should be permitted. The regulatory body has argued that such contracts could undermine election integrity, a concern that has been echoed by policymakers and watchdog groups. However, in October 2024, a federal appeals court ruled in favor of Kalshi, stating that the CFTC failed to demonstrate how these contracts would cause “irreparable injury” to the public. This ruling allowed Kalshi to list election-related contracts, paving the way for Robinhood’s new prediction markets.
Despite this victory, the scrutiny hasn’t stopped. In February 2025, the CFTC launched an investigation into Kalshi and Crypto.com regarding their compliance with regulations for a Super Bowl derivatives market. This ongoing regulatory oversight shows the fine line that event-based futures markets must walk as they expand.
Robinhood's reliance on KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated exchange, is a strategic move to ensure compliance while offering prediction markets at scale. In its official announcement, Robinhood emphasized that it has been in close contact with the CFTC and aims to continue working with the agency to "promote innovation in the futures, derivatives, and crypto markets."
By leveraging Kalshi's federal designation as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), Robinhood is positioning itself to offer legally compliant event-based futures while mitigating regulatory risks. The partnership with Kalshi also provides a layer of credibility that could make Robinhood’s prediction markets more palatable to US regulators.
What’s Next for Robinhood’s Prediction Markets?
Robinhood’s decision to launch this hub represents a larger trend in financial markets where event-based trading is gaining mainstream traction. Beyond political outcomes, prediction markets can offer insights into a wide range of topics, from economic indicators to sports results and major world events.
The potential for expansion is significant, particularly as more traders look for alternative ways to engage with markets beyond traditional stocks and cryptocurrencies. Given the growing appetite for event-driven speculation, Robinhood’s move into prediction markets could become a key revenue driver while reinforcing its reputation as an innovator in financial services.
However, regulatory hurdles remain. As the CFTC continues to scrutinize event-based futures, Robinhood and Kalshi will need to navigate an evolving legal landscape. Whether the prediction markets hub can withstand regulatory pressure in the long run will depend on how well the platform aligns itself with existing US laws and whether future legal challenges arise.
Gemini Appoints New CFO Amid Potential IPO and Crypto Policy Shift Under Trump Administration
In other news, crypto exchange Gemini is welcoming a new chief financial officer as the company navigates a rapidly shifting regulatory landscape under the new Trump administration. Dan Chen, a seasoned finance executive with experience at Affirm, MetLife Investments, and Morgan Stanley, announced his appointment via X on Monday.
"Crypto is the most dynamic sector in finance, and Gemini is at the forefront of this revolution — making it simple and secure to engage on the digital asset frontier," Chen wrote in his post.
Chen’s arrival comes at a critical juncture for Gemini, which has reportedly been considering an initial public offering (IPO). The move could position Gemini as a publicly traded company, further solidifying its place in the crypto industry.
"I’m looking forward to helping Gemini scale by driving financial strategy as the company enters its next phase of growth," Chen added, signaling his focus on financial expansion and strategic positioning.
The appointment of a new CFO follows a period of regulatory turbulence for Gemini and other crypto firms in the US. Under the previous Biden administration, crypto companies often faced aggressive regulatory scrutiny, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launching multiple enforcement actions against leading industry players.
However, a policy shift appears to be underway under President Donald Trump’s second administration, which many view as significantly more crypto-friendly. The Winklevoss twins—Gemini’s co-founders, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss—were recently invited to a White House crypto summit, where they addressed the industry’s challenges over the past years.
"We never thought that we’d be attacked the way we did in our backyard after trying to do the right thing for so many years and always trying to raise the bar with respect to regulation," Cameron Winklevoss stated, according to a transcript released by the White House.
The statement sheds light on the industry's frustration with regulatory actions taken by the SEC under former Chair Gary Gensler, who faced criticism for what many saw as an adversarial approach toward the crypto sector.
Gemini's regulatory landscape has seen significant changes in recent months. In March 2024, Cameron Winklevoss announced that the SEC had closed its investigation into Gemini and would not be pursuing enforcement action. The decision marked a notable shift, as the SEC under the previous administration had been actively pursuing cases against major crypto exchanges.
Additionally, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) lawsuit against Gemini was recently resolved. Gemini agreed to pay $5 million to settle allegations that the company had made misleading statements regarding its products.
The reversal of enforcement actions and settlements with regulators signal that the industry may be entering a more predictable and cooperative era in its relationship with US authorities.
A Potential Gemini IPO?
Amid these regulatory shifts, Bloomberg has reported that Gemini is exploring the possibility of an IPO. While the company has not confirmed specific details, such a move would represent one of the most significant public listings by a crypto firm in recent years.
An IPO could help Gemini raise additional capital, expand its product offerings, and increase mainstream adoption of its platform. The exchange, which has long branded itself as a regulatory-compliant alternative to competitors like Binance and Coinbase, may see this as an opportune time to go public as market conditions improve.
If Gemini proceeds with an IPO, it would join a select group of publicly traded crypto firms, including Coinbase, which went public in 2021.
