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Traders on Polymarket now believe Donald Trump has a 71% chance of winning the presidential election in November.

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Trump's Presidential Chances Hit New High on Polymarket After Shooting

Analyze the ongoing battle between the crypto industry and the SEC, shedding light on the challenges and efforts to achieve regulatory clarity and acceptance.

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Crypto vs SEC: Industry Strives for Digital Asset Inclusion

Multiple metrics indicate that retail interest in Bitcoin is steadily declining, which could put a big BTC bull run out of reach.

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election surged on Polymarket after he survived a shooting at a Pennsylvania rally. The incident also led to the creation of new Trump-themed meme coins and led to a 30% rise in the largest meme coin, MAGA. However, these coins are experiencing a lot of volatility. The dollar also strengthened in the wake of the shooting.

 probability of retaking the White House jumped to an 

 on Polymarket after he was injured from a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. A Secret Service spokesman said the Republican presidential candidate was "safe" after the shooting. According to 

, a suspected gunman was killed, and a spectator passed away as well.

Photos and video footage of Trump with blood on his face pumping his fist in the air are circulating on social media, after two weeks of conversations that were focused on the frailty and gaffes of his opponent, President 

. Binden’s odds of becoming president took a dive after the shooting, and Polymarket traders believe he has only an 18% chance of being reelected.

"Yes" shares in Polymarket's contract on whether Trump will win the presidency climbed ten cents after the incident, to 70 cents, meaning the market saw a 70% chance that he will win the November presidential 

. At press time, this number stood at 71%.  

Presidential election winner odds (Source: 

Each share pays out $1 if the prediction comes true, and zero if not. Bets are programmed into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and settled in 

, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 for dollars.

According to writer Noah Kumin, the shooting also inspired the creation of a number of new meme coins, many of them in poor taste, on the Solana token creation site Pump.fun. "Resurrection of Trump" (ROT) and "Hero Trump" (HERO) were just two of the many that reared their heads. 

Trump has been very vocal about his wholehearted 

 on the campaign trail. He is even set to speak at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville this month. 

 was founded four years ago by Shayne Coplan, and has seen some very impressive trading volumes in 2024, mostly because of the enthusiasm for political betting ahead of the U.S. election. The U.S. presidential winner contract already has a total of $252 million in bets placed, a record for the company and for all crypto-based prediction markets. 

PredictIt, a more traditional betting site where wagers are settled in fiat, showed a very 

. Trump shares ended up climbing from 59 cents prioir to the shooting to 66 cents, before leveling off at 65 cents.

 a more reliable gauge of sentiment and prefer it as a method of forecasting rather than polls or pundits because the people making predictions are putting money on the line. In other words, people believe they are much more reliable because people have some skin in the game by making bets, which means that they are far more likely to do thorough research and express their honest opinions.

In addition to Trump’s reelection odds, 

 also surged after the shooting. The price of the largest Donald Trump meme coin, 

 (TRUMP), surged by more than 30% after the assassination attempt on the former United States President while he was speaking on stage at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. 

The Ethereum-based MAGA meme coin spiked very quickly from a price of $6.31 to $10.36 immediately after the assassination attempt, seeing its total market capitalization jump from $293 million to $469 million in less than 45 minutes, according to 

However, MAGA experienced a big drop over the past 24 hours. At press time, MAGA is trading hands at $8.24 after its price fell by more than 13% throughout the past day, according to 

. Zooming out to the longer-term timeframes shows that the meme coin is still in the green by over 41% over the past week. 

MAGA’s performance is closely tied to news surrounding Trump. After the assassination attempt, the heightened volatility that was seen could be attributed to several factors, including increased uncertainty and a shift in market sentiments. 

, reactions to the event have been very different but still very intense. Supporters of Trump are outraged and many theories have been making the rounds on platforms like X, suggesting that the attempt was politically motivated. Some high-profile figures like Congresswoman 

 and the FBI were involved, but this theory has been widely debunked by fact-checkers.

Other users are just relieved that Trump actually survived the attempt, and are sharing their well-wishes and hopes for his continued safety. The assassination attempt itself is also shrouded in some controversy. There are many online discussions about the security measures in place and the potential implications for Trump’s political future.

Other Trump Memes See Sharp Gains and Losses

 Tremp (TREMP) jumped more than 63% in the hour after the news, while another meme coin called MAGA Hat (MAGA) briefly spiked 21% in the same timeframe. 

 also took a hit in the past 24 hours. TREMP saw its price decline by about 6% since yesterday to trade hands at $0.4435 at press time.

 suffered a very similar fate to the rest of the Trump meme coins as its price plummeted by almost 30% over the past day to trade at $0.0008583. The token is, however, still up by 31% on its weekly time frame.

 that the dollar also rose broadly on Monday in the wake of the attempted assassination of the former U.S. President. The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar to $1.0888, while sterling dipped 0.13% to $1.2973. 

Vishnu Varathan, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank, stated that a bias for a supported, possibly even stronger, USD is likely to play out if the U.S. heads into Trump 2.0. This is attributed more to other major currencies being undermined by antagonistic U.S. trade and geopolitical posturing rather than the undisputed 

Long-dated U.S. bond yields ticked higher on expectations that a Trump win would lead to policies driving up government debt and stoking inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last up roughly three basis points at 4.2158%. 

Headlines from China also grabbed investors' attention, as data showed the world's second largest economy grew way slower than expected in the second quarter, weighed down by a protracted property downturn and job insecurity squeezing domestic demand.

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As the cryptocurrency industry grows, its battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) becomes more intense. Several significant court rulings have highlighted the ongoing friction between these two entities in recent months. This conflict centers around classifying cryptocurrencies as securities, placing them under stricter

 For instance, a legislative move by the House aims to create clearer regulatory guidelines by splitting digital asset regulation between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (

 is playing out in courts and has significant implications for

 and Binance. These firms are not just passively awaiting decisions but are actively

. They are even preparing for high-stakes battles that could reach the Supreme Court. The SEC's aggressive legal stance has undoubtedly shaken the industry, causing uncertainty among investors and companies.

The crypto community has turned to social media platforms like Twitter, with experts and market enthusiasts voicing their concerns and strategies. Analysts from popular crypto media outlets emphasize the need for regulatory clarity to ensure the industry's growth and stability. This ongoing debate is not just a legal skirmish; it’s a pivotal moment that could define the future of digital assets in the financial ecosystem.

Cryptocurrencies have undergone significant transformations, reflecting evolving regulations and market dynamics. Understanding these changes is crucial for navigating the digital asset industry today.

In 2009, Bitcoin emerged as the first decentralized digital currency. Its creation by an unknown person or group known as Satoshi Nakamoto laid the foundation for the crypto world. Over the next few years, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple emerged, each with unique features and purposes.

Ethereum, introduced in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin, brought smart contracts, allowing developers to build decentralized applications (dApps) on its platform. This innovation spurred the creation of numerous projects and tokens, expanding the use cases for blockchain technology beyond simple transactions.

The rise of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) around 2017 marked an important phase in which projects raised capital by issuing tokens. Despite the hype, many ICOs resulted in scams, prompting

 (DeFi) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), both of which highlight the ever-evolving capabilities of the blockchain.

Today, the cryptocurrency market is characterized by volatility and rapid innovation. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain dominant, but newer players like Binance Coin and Cardano are gaining traction. Market capitalization fluctuates, influenced by

, technological advancements, and macroeconomic factors.

In the United States, regulation remains fragmented, with entities like the SEC, CFTC, and IRS offering varied definitions and treatments of digital assets. This fragmented oversight includes ongoing litigation, such as the case between Coinbase and the SEC.

. Some countries like El Salvador have embraced Bitcoin as a legal tender, while others impose strict regulations. This diverse regulatory landscape affects where and how cryptocurrencies can be traded and used.

Market dynamics are also shaped by institutional adoption. Major financial institutions and corporations are incorporating cryptocurrencies into their strategies, which adds legitimacy and prompts further

. The balance between innovation and regulation continues to define the crypto landscape.

The SEC plays a pivotal role in the financial regulation of the digital asset industry, primarily focusing on ensuring compliance and

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) oversees securities markets in the United States. It aims to protect investors, maintain fair, orderly, efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation. For the crypto industry, the SEC interprets how

debates on whether certain digital assets qualify as securities

, any digital asset that meets the criteria of an investment contract must adhere to securities regulations.

The SEC emphasizes transparency and investor protection by enforcing registration requirements. However, the industry argues that these frameworks are outdated and ill-suited for the nature of digital assets. This tension continues to provoke discussions on how best to regulate without stifling innovation.

 against crypto companies. High-profile cases such as

 Case highlight their stance. These actions typically aim to hold companies accountable for offering unregistered securities. 

In 2024, the SEC charged ShapeShift AG with operating as an unregistered dealer and imposed a $275,000 penalty (

). These cases indicate that the SEC is serious about enforcing securities laws within the crypto space, aiming to push the industry toward regulatory compliance.

However, the crypto industry contends that these actions create legal uncertainty and hinder operational efficiency. Like in the Debt Box Case, the court eventually found the SEC wanting and ordered the commission to pay approximately $1.8M in legal fees to Digital Licensing Inc. (Debt Box). Judge Shelby criticized SEC’s use of agency status to justify actions, causing disruption with inaccuracies and falsehoods. The sanctions also included two SEC lawyers resigning in April 2024 as they were told to quit or be fired within a month.

The Debt Box Case like other cases against Binance, Coinbase, ConsenSys/MetaMask, Uniswap and Paxos are part of a lengthy and still ongoing legal battle between crypto companies and the SEC. This underscores the deep-seated differences in perspectives on how digital assets should be integrated into existing financial systems.

Tensions Between the Crypto Industry and the SEC

The conflict between the crypto industry and the SEC centers on regulatory oversight. Many crypto companies argue that the SEC's rules are overly strict and limit innovation, while the SEC maintains that many crypto projects operate like illegal securities.

 have characterized the SEC's approach to crypto regulation. For instance, the

. The company argued that XRP is more akin to a currency and does not fall under SEC jurisdiction. The case was a landmark decision, challenging the agency’s expansive view of digital assets.

Another significant case involved digital asset exchanges like Coinbase. The SEC pushed to classify various crypto tokens traded on the platform as securities, requiring them to comply with

. Many exchanges find these requirements burdensome, arguing they stifle technological innovation.

These cases highlight the broader industry tensions on whether traditional financial regulations should apply to the evolving crypto market. The outcomes of these legal battles are crucial in shaping the future regulatory landscape.

The crypto industry has mobilized significant resources in response to the SEC’s actions. Organizations like the Blockchain Association and the Crypto Council for Innovation aim to influence policy through lobbying and public relations efforts. They argue that the SEC’s approach is outdated and ill-suited for digital assets.

Crypto companies have also boosted their presence in Washington, hiring former regulators and legal experts to help navigate the complex regulatory environment. This strategic push seeks to create more favorable regulations that recognize the unique nature of digital assets.

Public campaigns and social media have also been vital tools. Influential voices from the crypto world, such as those on Twitter, often highlight

. Their advocacy plays a key role in shaping public opinion and legislative discussions.

Understanding the legal landscape for digital assets involves reviewing existing securities laws and the adaptations needed to regulate cryptocurrencies effectively. This section unpacks how current laws apply and what changes are being proposed.

Existing U.S. securities laws classify certain digital assets as securities based on the "investment contract" analysis. The SEC uses the Howey Test to determine if a digital asset falls under this category. The Howey Test checks whether transactions involve an investment of money in a common enterprise with the expectation of profits derived predominantly from the efforts of others.

Under federal securities laws, if a digital asset qualifies as a security, it must be registered with the SEC. This affects initial offerings and how these assets can be traded. 

The SEC has already applied this framework

 in high-profile cases, such as the ongoing

Entities in offering, selling, or trading digital assets must comply with these regulations to avoid penalties. These laws aim to protect investors from fraud and market manipulation but have been criticized for their complexity and the high cost of compliance.

Adapting Regulations for Cryptocurrencies

The rapid development of the digital asset market has prompted calls for a more

 face challenges in adapting outdated laws to modern digital assets. On December 1, 2022, discussions began around a potential

 that would better fit the unique nature of cryptocurrencies, as highlighted in

Several proposals are on the table, including creating distinct categories for digital assets that separate them from traditional securities. These changes aim to address issues like market transparency, investor protection, and the technological complexities of digital assets. For instance, providing clear guidelines for Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and secondary market trading can foster innovation while ensuring

 and analysts, such as those active on crypto Twitter, advocate for regulatory clarity, stressing that clear rules will attract more institutional investment and boost market confidence. While this process continues, the goal remains to balance innovation with investor protection.

Regulatory uncertainty in the crypto industry leads to hesitancy and challenges for innovation and investment. It creates an environment where the rules are unclear, impacting the actions of startups and investors.

Regulatory uncertainty often stifles innovation. When developers and companies are unsure about the legal landscape, they are less likely to pursue new projects. Many startups face challenges in securing funding due to unclear regulations. Investors fear potential legal repercussions, which results in decreased financial support for innovative projects.

Unclear guidelines can also lead to inconsistent rule enforcement. For example, the ongoing litigation involving the SEC and Ripple creates a complex situation for other blockchain projects. They struggle to understand whether their tokens will be classified as securities, leading to conservative development approaches.

Moreover, regulatory uncertainty encourages companies to move to countries with clearer crypto regulations, causing a "brain drain." This migration hampers the growth of the crypto sector in regions with less clear frameworks. Consequently, it limits the potential for innovation and economic growth in those areas.

For investors, regulatory uncertainty translates to increased risk. Without clear regulations, predicting the legal status of digital assets becomes challenging. This unpredictability can lead to sudden changes in the market, affecting investment strategies and outcomes.

The recent shakeup at the SEC has added to these uncertainties. Changes in leadership and policy direction create a volatile environment. Investors find it hard to make informed decisions due to the lack of consistent regulations.

Additionally, if rules suddenly change, previously compliant investments may become non-compliant. This risk discourages long-term investments and promotes a short-term mindset. Investors prefer to allocate funds to more stable sectors, resulting in lower liquidity and growth in the crypto market.

Overall, regulatory uncertainty creates significant barriers for investors, affecting their confidence and willingness to invest in digital assets. Ensuring clear and stable regulations would likely promote a more secure and attractive investment environment.

Countries around the world are developing their regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies. Different regions take varied approaches, balancing innovation with investor protection.

Regulatory approaches to crypto vary significantly across the globe. In the European Union, the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation aims to create a clear legal framework for digital assets, enhancing consumer protection and market integrity. In contrast, the United States has been more aggressive with enforcement actions through agencies like the SEC, affecting major players like Ethereum.

Asian countries like Japan and South Korea have implemented stringent regulations, requiring crypto exchanges to register and comply with strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) protocols. On the other hand, Bahrain offers a more supportive environment, aiming to attract fintech companies with light regulations. These varied approaches illustrate the diversity of global perspectives on crypto regulations.

Collaboration and Conflict in International Regulation

International regulation of digital assets involves both collaboration and conflict. Organizations like the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) have proposed 18 recommendations for managing cryptocurrencies at a global level. These guidelines aim to harmonize regulations and reduce regulatory arbitrage, where companies exploit the most favorable laws.

However, conflicts arise when countries prioritize their own economic or political goals. For example, while European nations push for stricter AML measures, smaller jurisdictions might compete by offering lenient regulatory environments to attract crypto investments. Collaborative efforts, such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidelines, work to standardize rules yet face challenges due to varying national interests.

Finding a path forward for the relationship between the crypto industry and the SEC involves navigating potential regulatory changes and fostering effective communication strategies. These efforts are crucial to building a more inclusive and well-regulated market.

The SEC shakeup has led to discussions on future regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders expect more detailed guidelines on digital assets. One significant concern is how these assets will be classified. Many hope for clear distinctions between securities and commodities, which would eliminate much of the regulatory uncertainty that currently plagues the industry.

The SEC could also introduce specific Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) rules and similar fundraising mechanisms. These rules would aim to protect investors while allowing innovation. Another possibility is creating a self-regulatory organization (SRO) for the crypto sector. This SRO could work alongside the SEC to enforce standards and compliance.

The crypto industry and the SEC must engage in open and honest dialogue for progress to be made. Industry leaders can contribute by participating in public comment periods and attending SEC-hosted events. These platforms provide an opportunity to voice concerns and offer insights into the unique aspects of digital assets.

Social media also plays a role. Crypto experts often use platforms like Twitter to discuss regulatory issues. Engaging in these conversations can help both sides understand each other's perspectives. For instance, well-known analysts often share their views on recent SEC actions, providing valuable feedback.

Lobbying efforts can further improve dialogue. Industry representatives can help regulators make informed decisions by presenting well-researched data and case studies. Building relationships with legislators who support crypto can also lead to more favorable outcomes.

The ongoing battle between the SEC and the crypto industry continues to shape the

 in the United States. Each court case further defines the boundaries of the SEC's regulatory reach, with significant implications for the

Stakeholders in the crypto industry remain deeply engaged in these legal battles. Many argue that the SEC's approach stifles innovation and limits growth opportunities for new technologies. The recent

 between the SEC and the CFTC, reflecting a legislative effort to address these concerns.

Crypto enthusiasts, including prominent voices on Twitter,

 about this potential regulatory shift. They believe clearer, more favorable regulations could increase stability and confidence in the market. As one notable analyst tweeted, "A balanced regulatory framework could unlock massive potential for the crypto space."

 facing lawsuits to smaller startups trying to navigate the complex legal landscape, the future of crypto in the U.S. sits at a critical juncture. The stakes are high, and the outcomes of these legal battles will likely determine the industry's trajectory for years to come.

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