Bitcoin traders are optimistic about a potential BTC price surge in September, but there is still some skepticism about the crypto reaching six figures by the end of 2024. Crypto traders see much more promising signs for Bitcoin's long-term targets, and a potential breakout driven by positive macroeconomic factors and support from Donald Trump. Additionally, the introduction of the "BITCOIN Act of 2024" by Sen. Cynthia Lummis could also boost BTC’s price as it allows US states to hold Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Forecasts Point to September Surge
Bitcoin traders are very optimistic about an upward movement for Bitcoin’s (BTCs) price in September but are still cautious about reaching the six-figure mark by the end of 2024. On July 30, pseudonymous crypto trader Rekt Capital shared in an X post that Bitcoin is still on track for a September breakout, although it failed to break out of the reaccumulation range within 100 days after the Bitcoin halving in April.
On July 29, Bitcoin was trading at $66,343, which was a 2+% increase from its post-halving price. At press time, BTC was worth about $66,042.47, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Several other traders believe Bitcoin is much more likely to breach the $100,000 mark in 2025 rather than in 2024. Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades believes that the higher timeframe Bitcoin chart looks a lot more promising.
This view is shared by Reflexivity Research founder Will Clemente as he pointed out that the Bitcoin quarterly chart looks impressive. Daan Crypto Trades is confident in seeing six figures in 2025, especially considering the positive macroeconomic factors. He pointed out that reaching $100,000 would be a reasonable target given the previous all-time high of $69,000 and the impact of inflation.
In the short term, Daan Crypto Trades is targeting the $70,000 to $74,000 range, which has faced multiple rejections over the past few months. He also expects rapid price expansion once Bitcoin breaks above this range.
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan explained that Bitcoin has been trading in a clear range of $55,000 to $73,000 since March and is currently testing the upper bounds of this range. Greenspan believes that former United States President Donald Trump's recent support for Bitcoin will help its price break out of extended consolidation. His prediction of nation-state FOMO driving this cycle now seems to be materializing.
Longs Wiped Out as Bitcoin Dips
Bitcoin bears extended their sell-side activity after the trading day started on July 30, which led to a large decrease in leveraged longs as Bitcoin's price dropped below $66,000. This decline happened after several unsuccessful attempts to surpass $70,000.
Popular trader Skew pointed out that around $800 million worth of BTC futures open interest (OI) was wiped out after the drop from $70,000. Approximately 12,000 BTC, or $802 million in OI, had cleared.
Open interest refers to the total number of BTC-related derivative contracts that are currently open on all exchanges. Skew attributed the sell-off to spot selling, and emphasized the need for an increase in leveraged long positions and spot buying volume to reclaim the weekly open at $67,500.
Daan Crypto Trades also pointed out that long BTC liquidations are trapped at $69,000, which is causing a reduction in open interest. He agreed with Skew that spot activity would be crucial in determining the market's direction.
Bitcoin futures open interest reached a new all-time high of $39.46 billion across all exchanges on July 29, according to Coinglass data, yet Daan Crypto Trades anticipated some increased volatility because of this rapid rise in OI.
Market participants are now focusing on long traders and spot buying activity. Coinglass data shows that long BTC liquidations could happen if the price falls to $65,500. Additionally, short liquidations are building up between $70,000 and $72,000, while some longs using 10x leverage could be liquidated between $60,372 and $58,400, which could suggest a potential price drop to these levels.
BITCOIN Act Aims to Strengthen USD with BTC
While some analysts are still cautious about BTC's next more, there are some factors that could push up Bitcoin’s price. Sen. Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill, the “Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide Act of 2024,” or the "BITCOIN Act of 2024," which outlines a plan for the U.S. and states to hold Bitcoin. The main goal of the bill is to strengthen the U.S. dollar's position in the global financial system by taking advantage of Bitcoin's unique properties as a decentralized and scarce digital asset.
The bill proposes a "Bitcoin Purchase Program" to buy up to 200,000 Bitcoin annually over five years, totaling 1 million BTC. The U.S. Treasury Department would then be required to publish quarterly reports on these holdings. States can voluntarily participate in the program, provided they stick to specified security protocols.
Lummis is known for being a long-time Bitcoin supporter, and announced her plans to introduce the bill on July 27. She believes it might be considered after the November elections.
According to Lummis, the U.S. already holds reserves in gold and petroleum. However, she believes establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve will secure the nation’s financial leadership.
The draft bill also addresses some adjustments to gold certificates. The Federal Reserve banks will be required to tender all outstanding gold certificates to the Secretary and for the Secretary to issue new certificates reflecting the fair market value of the gold held.
Trump Raises Over $20M at Bitcoin Conference
Donald Trump’s pro-crypto attitude could also be beneficial for BTC’s price. The crypto community’s support for the former President was made clear after he ended up raising over $20 million during the Bitcoin 2024 event, according to Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey. The fundraiser was held at the Nashville Music City Center and was partly organized by Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn. It was attended by 100 people and became Trump’s second-highest fundraiser ever.
Over the past few months, he has made several appeals to the industry, and has raised an impressive amount of money from its leading figures. According to an RSVP invitation, a “roundtable” with Trump cost $844,600 per person, while a photo opportunity was at least $60,000. Some attendees included well known people like Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Kid Rock, Jake Paul, and Billy Ray Cyrus.
According to David Bailey, the contributions came from a mix of industry insiders and major investors. Before the conference, Trump’s campaign already raised $4 million in crypto donations since May, with $2.15 million from just 19 donors. In 2022, Trump reported owning between $100,000 and $250,000 in cryptocurrency. A Federal Election Commission filing reveals that his campaign has raised a total of $221 million.
Fairshake, a crypto-focused super PAC, has raised $202 million to support pro-crypto politicians like Trump. This proves why so many industry leaders consider the current U.S. election cycle as crucial for the industry's future. In fact, former Messari CEO Ryan Selkis is very concerned about the impact of a Democratic victory on crypto's survival in the U.S.
Despite his earlier skepticism, Trump emerged as a surprising advocate for the industry. His 48-minute address at the Bitcoin 2024 conference included announcing the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, He also pledged to remove crypto-skeptical SEC Chairman Gary Gensler if he gets elected.
