Bitcoin Could Hit $100K by November, Says Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in August and hit $100,000 by the U.S. presidential election, influenced by political factors and investor sentiment.

Standard Chartered's optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin have stirred discussions about the digital currency's potential surge to $100,000 by the U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, despite a decline in Bitcoin's price, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows, reflecting a shift in investor behavior. 

Additionally, Michael Dell's recent poll on X, questioning the importance of AI, Bitcoin, or love and relationships, has sparked notable reactions from the crypto community, including a strong endorsement of Bitcoin from MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor.

Bitcoin Set to Break All-Time Highs: Standard Chartered's Bullish Forecast

Bitcoin's price could hit a new all-time high in August, followed by an impressive surge to $100,000 by the time of the U.S. presidential election in November, according to a bold prediction from Standard Chartered.

On Tuesday, Standard Chartered Bank's head of forex and digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, made a compelling case for Bitcoin's bullish trajectory. "A fresh all-time high for bitcoin in August is likely, then $100,000 by U.S. election day," Kendrick asserted, highlighting a promising future for the flagship cryptocurrency.

Kendrick's prediction is intricately linked to the political landscape in the United States, particularly the U.S. presidential election race. His analysis hinges on the assumption that Joe Biden will remain in the election race—a scenario perceived by the market as favoring a Donald Trump victory. 

The Standard Chartered analyst views Trump as "bitcoin-positive," suggesting a positive correlation between the former president's electoral odds and the price of Bitcoin. "The logic here is that both regulation and mining would be looked at more favorably under Trump," Kendrick explained, indicating that Trump's potential return to power could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

However, Kendrick also modeled an alternative scenario, which he described as "least likely," where Biden steps out of the presidential election race in late July. In this case, Bitcoin prices could dip to $50,000-$55,000. He expanded on this possibility, noting that if Biden's Democratic candidate replacement is a highly credible figure, such as Michelle Obama, "bitcoin prices will stay soft."

Nevertheless, Kendrick concluded that if Biden stays in the race, "bitcoin is a fantastic buying opportunity." He emphasized the importance of Aug. 4 as a key date for determining Biden's candidacy. "This is the date at which Ohio law requires presidential candidates to be registered. So, if Biden is still the Democratic nominee on Aug. 4, he will remain so in the first week of November," the Standard Chartered analyst added.

Kendrick remains steadfast in his long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin. In early June, he reaffirmed his year-end price prediction of $150,000 and his end-of-2025 forecast of $200,000 for Bitcoin. "Notably, a $150,000 price by end-2024 would see bitcoin join the $3 trillion club in terms of market cap, following NVDA's $3 trillion market cap," he remarked.

Kendrick's predictions have significant implications for investors and market participants. If his forecasts materialize, Bitcoin could see unprecedented levels of mainstream adoption and market penetration. The potential political factors at play also highlight the intricate relationship between crypto markets and broader geopolitical dynamics.

Market participants are closely watching the evolving political landscape in the United States, with the upcoming election adding a layer of complexity to bitcoin's price dynamics. 

For now, the crypto community awaits the crucial Aug. 4 date, which could solidify Biden's candidacy and set the stage for a potentially bullish run for Bitcoin. Until then, market participants will need to navigate the evolving landscape with caution and strategic foresight.

The prevailing narrative that the rapid growth in assets for spot Bitcoin ETFs was driven by a "number go up" mentality faced a significant challenge in June. Despite a 7% decline in BTC's price, data from Bloomberg Intelligence revealed that spot funds experienced net inflows of $790 million, indicating a departure from the typical herd behavior associated with rising asset prices.

Leading the charge was BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has now become the largest spot Bitcoin ETF. The fund saw inflows exceeding $1 billion, effectively counterbalancing substantial outflows from the high-fee Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). 

The inflow trend in June stands in stark contrast to April, when spot funds collectively witnessed large outflows as Bitcoin's price fell by 15%. This pattern highlights a notable change in investor behavior, where recent declines did not deter inflows, potentially reflecting a growing confidence in BTC's long-term prospects.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that the resilience of spot Bitcoin ETFs might be attributed to a demographic often overlooked in the crypto market—older investors. "Boomers are much better holders than some make them out to be," Balchunas wrote, possibly addressing well-followed analyst James Bianco, who has argued that the massive asset accumulation in spot ETFs was driven by weak-handed, speculative money.

Part of the positive inflow streak in June could also be attributed to the growing enthusiasm surrounding the potential approval of a spot Ether ETF. Both regulators and potential issuers have been actively working towards the approval of such funds. The anticipation of a rival spot crypto ETF might pull some capital from Bitcoin funds as well, but it does, however, signal a broader acceptance of the crypto industry within the financial system.

Reports indicate that Ether ETF issuers have been asked to re-submit an important filing before July 8, fueling speculation that these ETFs could hit the market soon. The approval of a spot Ether ETF could mark a significant milestone, reflecting regulators' evolving stance on crypto investments.

These strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs during a period of price decline suggest a maturing market where investors are not solely driven by short-term price movements. Instead, they appear to be adopting a more strategic, long-term approach to crypto investments.

The resilience of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, in particular, indicates that institutional investors might be playing a larger role in the market. The fund's ability to attract over $1 billion in inflows despite market volatility highlights a growing confidence in bitcoin as a viable asset class.

Michael Dell’s Provocative Poll Ignites Bitcoin Debate

Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies, recently stirred the digital waters with a thought-provoking poll on X (formerly Twitter). The poll asked the community to weigh in on what they considered the most important thing: AI, Bitcoin, or love and relationships. This seemingly simple yet profound question piqued the interest of various online communities, particularly the crypto enthusiasts, with a significant portion of respondents favoring Bitcoin.

The poll, intended as a casual inquiry, quickly gained traction and caught the eye of prominent figures in the tech and crypto worlds. Among the notable respondents was Michael Saylor, co-founder and CEO of MicroStrategy, who is well-known for his bullish stance on Bitcoin. 

Saylor reacted to the survey with a heart emoji and later posted an emphatic response. In a direct reply to Dell’s tweet, Saylor declared, “Bitcoin is the most important thing.” This succinct yet powerful statement demonstrates Saylor’s unwavering belief in Bitcoin’s transformative potential as a store of value and a cornerstone of the future financial system.

Saylor’s response encapsulated his long-standing advocacy for Bitcoin, serving as a rallying cry for greater adoption and recognition of its role in reshaping global financial systems. His endorsement added significant weight to the poll’s outcome, highlighting the deep-rooted conviction among Bitcoin supporters.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $60,860.56, reflecting a 3.4% decline over the past 24 hours. Since April, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated between $59,000 and $74,000, showcasing the cryptocurrency’s inherent volatility. However, historical trends suggest a potentially bullish outlook for July. 

According to Ali Martinez, a noted crypto analyst, Bitcoin historically tends to rebound strongly in July following a negative June. The cryptocurrency has exhibited an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% during this month, bolstering optimism among traders and investors.

U.S.-listed ETFs witnessed about $130 million in inflows on the first day of July as well, marking their highest level since early June. This influx followed significant outflows exceeding $900 million in previous weeks, indicating renewed investor confidence.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action, one of the critical resistance levels identified is $65,795. Breaking through this level could pave the way for Bitcoin to target the next major milestone at $78,700. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be trapped within a parallel channel, with a lower barrier at $62,500. According to Ali, if this support level holds, Bitcoin could bounce back to $63,200 or $63,800, offering short-term trading opportunities.

The market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by historical performance patterns and renewed interest from institutional investors. The strong inflows into U.S.-listed ETFs in early July reflect a broader acceptance and confidence in Bitcoin’s potential to deliver robust returns.

Michael Dell’s poll, while seemingly lighthearted, underscores a deeper conversation about the role of emerging technologies and digital assets in contemporary society. The overwhelming support for Bitcoin in the poll indicates the growing recognition of cryptocurrencies as not just speculative assets but as integral components of the future financial landscape.

Saylor’s emphatic endorsement of Bitcoin further amplifies this sentiment, reinforcing the narrative that Bitcoin is poised to play a pivotal role in the evolution of global financial systems. As more prominent figures and institutions lend their support to Bitcoin, its journey towards mainstream adoption continues to gather momentum.