Bernstein Report Forecasts Bitcoin Surge to $1 Million by 2033

Bernstein's report highlights Bitcoin and crypto-linked stocks as undervalued and poised for significant institutional adoption, predicting substantial price increases by 2033.

Whale Alert, a prominent blockchain tracker, recently detected nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin transfers within an hour, coinciding with a rebound in Bitcoin's price following a 4% drop earlier in the week. Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange reserves have hit a three-year low, reflecting increased institutional demand and reduced selling pressure. Additionally, predictions from industry experts suggest that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented price levels in the coming years, driven by factors such as Bitcoin ETFs and the recent halving event.

Bernstein Report: Bitcoin and Crypto Stocks Poised for Institutional Adoption

Broker Bernstein has projected a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto-linked stocks, asserting that these assets are currently underrated and on the cusp of substantial institutional adoption. The insights were shared in a comprehensive research report released on Wednesday, offering a detailed analysis of the current and future landscape of cryptocurrency investments.

The Institutional Shift

According to Bernstein, the prevailing sentiment among crypto skeptics is that the initial momentum behind Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has dwindled. Critics argue that the bulk of early investments came from retail investors, while institutional interest was primarily driven by the "basis cash and carry trade," rather than new net long positions. However, Bernstein's analysts, Gautam Chhugani and Maihka Sapra, challenge this view, predicting a significant shift in the near future.

The report highlights that while the criticisms hold some truth, Bitcoin ETFs are on the verge of gaining approvals from major wirehouses and large private bank platforms by the third and fourth quarters of this year. The U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January marked a pivotal moment, vastly increasing access to the world's largest cryptocurrency.

The Trojan Horse for Adoption

Bernstein's analysts describe the institutional basis trade as the "Trojan horse for adoption." This strategy, which involves simultaneously buying the spot Bitcoin ETF and selling the Bitcoin futures contract, is seen as a gateway for institutional investors. As these investors grow more comfortable with the improving liquidity of Bitcoin ETFs, they are increasingly considering net long positions.

The basis trade exploits price discrepancies between the spot and futures markets, allowing traders to profit as these prices converge. This method has not only facilitated initial institutional engagement but also paved the way for more direct investment in Bitcoin.

Anticipated Inflows and Price Predictions

The report forecasts a surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows during the third and fourth quarters of the year, driven by large financial advisers approving these ETFs and the allocation capacity from existing portfolios. This anticipated wave of investments is expected to propel Bitcoin to new heights.

Bernstein's projections are particularly optimistic. The broker expects Bitcoin to reach a cycle high of approximately $200,000 by 2025, soaring to $500,000 by 2029, and an astonishing $1 million by 2033. These predictions signal a long-term bullish outlook, suggesting that the current undervaluation presents a lucrative opportunity for forward-thinking investors.

Outperform Ratings on Key Players

In alignment with its bullish stance on Bitcoin, Bernstein has issued outperform ratings on several key players in the crypto space. These include:

  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): A prominent Bitcoin mining company, Riot Platforms is well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated rise in Bitcoin prices. The company's operational efficiency and strategic expansions have garnered positive attention from Bernstein's analysts.
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): Another major Bitcoin miner, CleanSpark, is recognized for its innovative approach to sustainable mining practices. Bernstein's rating reflects confidence in CleanSpark's ability to thrive in an evolving regulatory landscape that increasingly favors environmentally responsible operations.
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR): Known for its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, software company MicroStrategy continues to be a significant player in the cryptocurrency market. Bernstein's analysts see substantial upside potential as the company's holdings appreciate in value.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): The popular trading platform, which has made significant inroads into the crypto market, is also rated as an outperformer. Robinhood's user-friendly interface and expanding crypto offerings make it a key beneficiary of increased institutional and retail adoption of Bitcoin ETFs.

Bernstein's report paints a promising picture for Bitcoin and crypto-linked stocks, suggesting that the current undervaluation presents a unique opportunity for investors. As institutional adoption accelerates, driven by the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and growing confidence in the market, Bitcoin is poised for substantial growth. With projections of reaching $1 million by 2033, the long-term outlook is undeniably bullish, making now a crucial time for investors to consider their positions in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit Three-Year Low Amid Increasing Institutional Demand

The total amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges has dropped to a three-year low, highlighting a significant shift in the crypto market dynamics. According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin exchange reserve, often referred to as exchange balance, has decreased to 2,825,703 BTC as of Jun. 19, 2024. This marks a notable decline from the 3,039,000 BTC recorded in January 2024.

The Implications of Low Exchange Reserves

Low exchange reserves typically indicate reduced selling pressure and potential supply shocks, as there is a smaller amount of Bitcoin available for purchase. This trend suggests that more Bitcoin is being moved off exchanges into long-term storage, reflecting a bullish sentiment among holders and reduced willingness to sell at current prices.

Bitcoin exchange balance as of Jun. 19, 2024, stands at 2,825,703 BTC. 

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States earlier this year has significantly influenced Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Since January 2024, asset managers like BlackRock have accumulated substantial amounts of Bitcoin, exerting additional pressure on the already constrained supply. As of Jun. 6, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds approximately 274,000 BTC. This ETF is one of the 11 Bitcoin ETFs currently trading in the U.S., collectively contributing to the growing institutional demand for the cryptocurrency.

Rising Inflows into Digital Asset Funds

May 2024 saw a remarkable $2 billion in monthly inflows into digital asset funds, with the majority directed towards Bitcoin investment funds and products. The Jun. 17 CoinShares Weekly Fund Flows report revealed that Bitcoin investment vehicles globally hold nearly $73 billion in Bitcoin. However, the same report noted significant weekly outflows of $621 million for the week of Jun. 15, 2024. This marked the largest outflows since March 2024, attributed to "more hawkish-than-expected" comments from the Federal Reserve, which signaled the maintenance of high interest rates, prompting a flight of capital from fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin.

Institutional Adoption: The Next Wave

Despite the increased institutional interest, industry experts like Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson believe that institutional adoption is still in its early stages. In an interview with CNBC, Johnson emphasized that current institutional involvement represents only the initial wave of early adopters. She anticipates a much larger influx of institutional capital in the near future, which could further strain the already limited Bitcoin exchange supply.

The April 2024 Halving Reduced Supply Further

Bitcoin’s supply constraints are exacerbated by the recent halving event in April 2024, which reduced the block mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Halving events, which occur approximately every four years, reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, effectively tightening supply. The latest halving has already influenced market dynamics by decreasing the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation.

The combination of decreasing exchange reserves, growing institutional demand, and the reduced supply from the halving event paints a bullish picture for Bitcoin's future. Bernstein's recent report projects Bitcoin prices to reach new highs, with estimates of $200,000 by 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and an astounding $1 million by 2033. If institutional interest continues to rise as predicted by experts like Jenny Johnson, the pressure on Bitcoin's limited supply could drive prices even higher in the coming years.

Massive Bitcoin Transfers Amid Market Rebound

Meanwhile, Whale Alert, a renowned blockchain tracker known for monitoring large crypto transactions, has detected a series of substantial Bitcoin transfers yesterday. These transactions moved nearly a billion U.S. dollars worth of Bitcoin within a single hour, coinciding with Bitcoin's recovery following a 4% decline on Tuesday.

The Details of the Transfers

The transactions recorded by Whale Alert involved the movement of 11,358 BTC, amounting to over $743 million. These transfers were split into three transactions, carrying 6,499 BTC, 2,359 BTC, and 2,500 BTC respectively. The first transfer alone was valued at almost half a billion dollars. Notably, the transactions occurred between unknown blockchain addresses, with the 6,499 BTC and 2,359 BTC transfers originating from the same wallet identified as -vtv93w.

Bitcoin's Market Rebound

On Tuesday, Bitcoin experienced a notable 4.05% drop, sending shockwaves through the crypto market as its price dipped to the $64,360 zone. However, the market leader has started to show signs of recovery, and was able to break above the psychological $65k threshold. 

The recent decline in Bitcoin's price was partly attributed to zero inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jun. 18. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust experienced a significant outflow of $62.3 million, surpassed only by Fidelity’s ETF, which saw $83 million in BTC withdrawals. This marked the fourth consecutive day of outflows, as reported by SpotOnChain on X.

Institutional Outflows and Market Sentiment

The consecutive outflows from major Bitcoin ETFs have raised concerns among investors about the short-term outlook for Bitcoin. The large-scale withdrawals indicate a cautious approach from institutional investors, possibly influenced by recent market volatility and macroeconomic factors. Despite these concerns, the market's ability to rebound demonstrates the resilience and continued interest in Bitcoin as a digital asset.

Samson Mow's Bold Predictions

Earlier this week, prominent Bitcoiner and CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow, reiterated his bold predictions of Bitcoin reaching $1 million. Mow, known for his vocal support of Bitcoin, took to Twitter to express his confidence in the cryptocurrency's potential to achieve this monumental price level. He pointed to daily inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Bitcoin halving in April as critical factors that could drive BTC to new heights.

Mow also introduced the concept of "Godzilla candles" and "Omega candles" in his tweets. He suggested that the absence of significant price spikes, or "Godzilla candles," increases the likelihood of witnessing an extraordinary "Omega candle," where Bitcoin’s price could leap from $70,000 to $200,000 overnight. Mow's predictions have fueled speculation and excitement within the crypto community, adding to the anticipation of Bitcoin's future performance.