Key takeaways
- Brent suffers steepest weekly decline since April 2020
- Trump signals restraint as Iran negotiations continue
- Strait of Hormuz attacks threaten fragile oil recovery
Oil prices extended their historic selloff on November 9 after Brent crude suffered its worst weekly decline since April 2020, as President Donald Trump signaled that additional US military strikes against Iran were unlikely if diplomatic negotiations continued progressing.
Brent futures fell 3.6% to $94.83 per barrel by 12:19 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 2.9% to $88.17. The renewed decline followed Brent's approximately 16.9% weekly collapse, which ended November 6 with the benchmark settling at $97.75.
The latest move confirms last week's oil market reversal, when expectations of reduced military tensions began removing the geopolitical premium built into crude prices.
Oil Prices Extend Historic Crash After Trump's Iran Comments
In a November 8 interview, Trump described further US strikes as highly unlikely, provided Washington and Tehran could reach a sufficiently strong agreement.
However, the president did not rule out military action entirely, and negotiations remain far from a confirmed settlement.
The comments followed an earlier oil price decline after Democrats won control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections.
Investors increasingly anticipate that political pressure could encourage negotiations rather than another large-scale military confrontation.
The reversal has been dramatic. Brent traded above $116 in late October as shipping attacks raised fears that supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could face further disruption.
Strait of Hormuz Attacks Continue Despite Falling Oil Prices
The selloff has continued even as security incidents threaten shipping near the world's most strategically important oil transit route.
According to UK Maritime Trade Operations, a tanker traveling outbound through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile on November 8. All crew members were reported safe.
A separate tanker caught fire approximately eight nautical miles northwest of Khasab, Oman, prompting the evacuation of its crew.
These incidents demonstrate that supply risks remain significant despite growing expectations of diplomatic progress.
Earlier US strikes near Iran's Qeshm Island had temporarily reversed a previous oil selloff, highlighting how quickly military developments can affect prices.
However, stronger-than-feared physical supply conditions have also contributed to the latest decline.
JPMorgan estimated that the global oil market recorded a surplus of approximately 1.4 million barrels per day in October as Middle Eastern exports recovered.
Can Brent Recover Above $100 After Historic Selloff?
The immediate outlook depends on whether diplomatic expectations translate into an agreement and sustained improvements in shipping conditions.
A continued decline in geopolitical tensions could push Brent toward $93, followed by the psychologically significant $90 level.
Conversely, renewed attacks or evidence of major supply disruptions could support a recovery toward $98–$100.
Earlier market forecasts warned that a renewed escalation could send Brent significantly higher, demonstrating how sensitive prices remain to the conflict.
The market also continues absorbing OPEC+'s decision to maintain December production targets, despite the volatility surrounding Iran negotiations.
