The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady today, although markets are still pricing a notable chance of a surprise rate hike.
The Federal Open Market Committee will release its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET, with investors watching closely for guidance on inflation, future hikes, and market risks.
JPMorgan Expects a Hawkish Hold From the Fed
JPMorgan’s market playbook assigns a 50% probability to a hawkish hold, where the Fed keeps rates unchanged but warns that inflation risks remain active. Under that outcome, the S&P 500 could trade roughly flat or fall as much as 0.5%.
The bank also sees a dovish hold as a more positive outcome for stocks. Under that scenario, the S&P 500 could rise up to 1% if Warsh signals confidence that inflation is easing.
A surprise 25-basis-point rate hike would likely create a sharper market reaction. JPMorgan expects that outcome could send the S&P 500 down 1.5% to 2%, with technology stocks likely facing the most pressure.
Markets still expect the Fed to keep the benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, the rate outlook has become less clear because Warsh has moved away from strong forward guidance.
Surprise Hike Risk Keeps Markets Cautious
Citadel Securities expects the Fed to raise rates this week, marking a surprise move against the broader consensus. Frank Flight, the firm’s head of macro strategy, said a quarter-point hike would strengthen Warsh’s credibility in fighting inflation.
The view also suggests policymakers may want to show that every decision does not need to be signaled in advance. That change has left investors with less confidence heading into today’s meeting.
Futures and prediction markets show wide disagreement. Some market gauges place the chance of a rate pause near 64% to 79%, while rate-hike odds range from about 21% to 36%.
Polymarket traders recently showed a 75% probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged. The same market showed a 25% chance that Warsh and the Fed raise rates by 0.25%.
Source: X
The uncertainty comes after the last FOMC meeting showed stronger support for tighter policy. Half of officials reportedly backed a rate hike at that meeting, increasing focus on today’s vote split.
A higher share of officials supporting another hike could pressure stocks, crypto, and precious metals. Traders are watching whether the statement points to a possible move in September.
Inflation and Bitcoin Price Add to Fed Decision Focus
Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping pressure on policymakers. June consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year earlier, down from 4.2% in May.
Core inflation also slowed to 2.6% from 2.9%, giving officials some room to wait. However, energy prices, tariffs, and AI data center spending continue to raise concerns about cost pressures.
Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher at times, creating another risk for inflation. Tariffs on imported goods have also added pressure across supply chains.
Warsh recently told Congress that he had “no tolerance” for continued elevated inflation. That comment has kept investors alert to a possible hawkish message, even if rates remain unchanged today.
Bitcoin also moved ahead of the Fed decision. The asset dipped below $63,000 on Tuesday before recovering above $64,500 as traders reduced exposure before the announcement.
Source: CoinCodex
Crypto markets remain sensitive to Fed policy because higher rates can reduce demand for risk assets. A hold may support short-term relief, while a surprise hike could pressure Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major tokens.
