Analyst Doctor Profit said Bitcoin is repeating its 2022 structure and could be heading toward a major capitulation event. He noted that the weekly chart is showing the same pattern that appeared before the last bear market’s “death cross,” and pointed to the $42,000-$43,000 zone as his downside target.
Doctor Profit recalled that in 2022, Bitcoin formed a “death cross” on the weekly chart: a bearish moving average crossover that appeared shortly after BTC broke below its 200-week moving average, or MA200. Two months later, a capitulation candle formed near the $15,000-$16,000 region, and Bitcoin dropped another 30%. According to him, that move marked the end of the previous bear market.
Why the Analyst Expects the Scenario to Repeat
According to Doctor Profit, a similar setup is now unfolding. Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week moving average, just as it did in 2022, while the same moving average crossover structure that preceded the previous death cross is forming again on the weekly chart.
The analyst emphasized that he had previously warned about the unreliability of the 200-week moving average and did not expect it to hold. He said many traders made the mistake of buying BTC directly at that support level, assuming it was strong, and are now trapped below it.
Doctor Profit also criticized those who believe entry price does not matter. In his view, the entry point is everything, and anyone who fails to understand this should not be trading.
The analyst also pointed to a broader historical pattern. According to him, in every bear market, Bitcoin has dropped 30% below its 200-week moving average, without exception. He added that every bear market has ended with capitulation, rather than a slow recovery from the moving average.
Why the Target Matches the $42,000-$43,000 Zone
According to Doctor Profit’s calculations, if the current level near $60,000 is used as a starting point and the historical model of a 30% decline is applied, Bitcoin would move directly into the $42,000-$43,000 zone. He said this is the same area he has been targeting since September 2025.
The analyst noted that this is the zone where BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF was launched and where key support is located. He considers it the likely bottom area for the current cycle. He also expects the bottom to form in September or October 2026, adding that several independent indicators are pointing to the same target zone.
According to Doctor Profit, the market is currently in what he calls the “fifth phase” of the scenario. He said the renewed formation of the moving average crossover structure is further confirmation that the market is developing as expected.
The analyst stressed that capitulation has not yet occurred and that market fear has not reached its peak. He believes realized losses are rising, but the extreme phase has not arrived yet. For that reason, he is waiting for a full capitulation event before buying.
