Bitcoin may be nearing a major turning point, but analysts say the market could still see one more move lower before a cycle bottom forms.
Ted expects BTC to form another lower high before a final drop, while CW says a long-term regression band is flashing a historical bottom signal.
Bitcoin Analyst Expects One More Drop Before Cycle Bottom Forms
Bitcoin could be setting up for another lower high before making a final move lower to complete its cycle bottom, according to crypto analyst Ted.
In a post on X, the analyst said BTC appears likely to form another lower high, a pattern that would keep the broader downtrend intact. The charts show Bitcoin repeatedly failing to reclaim resistance near the $75,000 area while support from an ascending trend line has weakened.
BTC/USD 2-Day and 12-Hour Charts. Source: Ted (@TedPillows)
On the two-day chart, BTC has broken below both the rising trend line and a key horizontal support level around $75,000. Meanwhile, the 12-hour chart outlines a possible recovery attempt that could result in a lower high beneath resistance before sellers regain control.
According to Ted, such a move could set the stage for one more sharp decline, potentially forming the cycle bottom. However, the bearish outlook would weaken if Bitcoin manages to reclaim the resistance zone and establish higher highs.
For now, traders are watching whether the expected lower high develops or if buyers can invalidate the bearish structure with a stronger recovery.
Bitcoin Historical Bottom Indicator Flashes Again, Analyst Says
Bitcoin is approaching a long-term support zone that has historically aligned with major market bottoms, according to crypto analyst CW.
In a post on X, the analyst highlighted a logarithmic regression chart showing Bitcoin trading near the lower portion of its long-term growth channel. The chart tracks BTC price action between a rising support trend line and an upper resistance band that have contained market cycles since 2011.
Bitcoin Long-Term Regression Band. Source: CW (@CW8900)
According to the chart, previous bear market lows in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022 formed near or below the lower boundary before Bitcoin entered new bull market phases. Current price action is once again approaching that area, leading the analyst to describe it as a historical bottom signal.
The chart does not provide a specific timing forecast, but it suggests Bitcoin may be entering a region where long-term investors have historically accumulated positions. However, past performance does not guarantee future results, and BTC could still experience further volatility before establishing a definitive bottom.
For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold within the lower range of the regression channel, a zone that has repeatedly marked major turning points throughout its history.
