Aave (AAVE) price has been rising over the past 24 hours after Grayscale Research forecasted the token could reach $175 in one year under a base case tied to regulatory clarity and wider adoption of tokenized assets.
At press time, the AAVE price was up 3.27% to $76.57 as buyers pushed the token back above the $76 area. Its market capitalization increased 3.28% to $1.18 billion, while 24-hour trading volume climbed 5.97% to $186.74 million, showing stronger market activity during the rebound.
The token moved from around $74.45 to the $76.4–$76.6 range during the session after recovering from a midday pullback near $74.5.
Grayscale Research said it believes AAVE is currently undervalued near $75, while its fair value could rise to about $175 within one year in a base case scenario. The firm linked that view to the potential for regulatory clarity to accelerate adoption of tokenized assets and decentralized finance lending.
Source: X
The firm compared crypto assets across different value categories. It described Bitcoin, Zcash, and Monero as closer to commodities, while AAVE, UNI, and SKY were placed nearer to cash flow-driven assets because their protocols can generate revenue from real usage.
Grayscale said DeFi protocols have generated nearly $25 billion in cumulative fees since 2023 across decentralized exchanges, lending platforms, staking, and derivatives markets. The firm said these fees show that DeFi activity is no longer only speculative, as protocols now support recurring user demand.
For Aave, Grayscale estimated that the protocol could earn about $60 million in 2026 despite recent market headwinds. Applying fintech-style multiples of about 20x to 25x would imply a fair value market capitalization of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion, or roughly $80 to $100 per token, compared with recent prices around $75.
Grayscale described Aave as a decentralized lending marketplace that operates across Ethereum and other blockchains without traditional human intermediaries. Users can deposit assets, borrow against collateral, and interact with lending markets through smart contracts.
The firm cited Bank of Canada research that found Aave has a much lower net interest margin than major U.S. and Canadian banks, partly because it has lower intermediation costs. Traditional bank margins include expenses such as salaries, branches, compliance infrastructure, and customer support, while protocol-based lending can operate with fewer overhead costs.
According to Grayscale, the Bank of Canada concluded that lending without traditional intermediaries is viable in a technical and operational sense. It also cited Aave’s continuous operation, transparency, and low-overhead structure as factors that may support long-term adoption.
Concurrently, Aave V4 has also crossed $50 million in active borrows, up 140% over the past month. That growth has added another data point for investors tracking protocol usage and the lending platform’s ability to expand during volatile market conditions.
AAVE’s technical setup has improved after a sharp early-June decline. The token has printed several consecutive green daily candles, rising from near $60 to the $77 area as buyers attempted to reclaim lost support.
The first key resistance sits near $80, a level that previously acted as support before the June selloff. A clean daily close above $80 could strengthen the rebound and open the way toward $88–$90, where AAVE consolidated before the latest breakdown.
Above that range, the next major resistance is near $100–$102. AAVE would need to reclaim that zone to show a stronger trend reversal on the daily chart. Until then, the move remains a recovery bounce within a broader downtrend.
Source: TradingView
According to the AAVEUSD 1-day price chart, indicators have improved. The relative strength index stood near 55.45, moving above neutral after recovering from oversold conditions earlier in June. The MACD has also turned positive, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram moving into positive territory.
On the downside, near-term support sits around $72–$74, followed by the stronger $60–$62 zone. If AAVE fails to break above $80 and then loses $72, traders may look for a retest of recent lows before any stronger recovery toward Grayscale’s longer-term valuation range.
