Market maker Wintermute says Bitcoin (BTC) could still fall toward the $50,000 zone despite its recent rebound. According to Wintermute strategist Jasper De Maere, the attractive long-term risk-reward ratio near $60,000 does not mean the market has already reached a bottom.
Last week, Bitcoin snapped a four-week decline and rebounded from the low-$60,000 area back above $65,000. The move was supported by two factors that, for the first time in a while, pushed in the same direction.
The first factor was the May inflation data in the United States. The annual consumer price index (CPI) rose to 4.2%, the highest level since April 2023 and the third consecutive acceleration, but the reading was in line with expectations. According to Wintermute, that was the key point: debt market participants had feared an even higher number, but it did not materialize.
Core inflation, meanwhile, slowed to 2.9%. Wintermute analysts said this suggests that the energy-driven inflation impulse may have peaked and is not accelerating further.
The second and more important factor was progress toward ending the conflict between the United States and Iran. After more than 100 days of standoff, the two sides announced a deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.
Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil fell sharply from just over $110 to around $80 over the past month, including a 6.6% weekly decline.
The drop in the geopolitical risk premium, which had weighed on markets since late February, also dragged down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves the inflation outlook, so the CPI data and the easing of geopolitical tensions reinforced each other rather than canceling each other out.
Wintermute points to the June 17 Federal Reserve meeting, the first under Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, as the next immediate macro catalyst.
The main question, according to Wintermute, is when the market will reverse. The answer, the firm argues, lies in liquidity.
Bitcoin remains a macro asset that tends to rise when excess liquidity returns through three main channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and publicly traded crypto treasury companies, also known as DATs. Wintermute says none of these channels is currently showing a clear reversal.
Assets under management at DAT companies have fallen from around $220 billion to $140 billion. Outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new capital raising has almost stopped. ETFs are also seeing their longest streak of outflows since launch, while stablecoin inflows are following a similar downward trend.
Wintermute recalled that the previous cycle began with a major liquidity impulse after spot Bitcoin ETF approval in early 2024. This time, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are focused on stocks and leveraged funds.
Until capital flows turn higher again, Wintermute believes it is too early to declare a confirmed Bitcoin bottom.
The firm’s main advice is to watch capital flows rather than price action or headlines alone. The risk-reward ratio in the low-$60,000 area looks attractive over the long term, and each sell-off leaves behind a more stable holder base. However, Wintermute does not rule out the possibility that Bitcoin could revisit the $50,000 zone before conditions improve.
