Bitcoin’s latest recovery remains under scrutiny after new market data showed that around 10 million BTC, or roughly half of the circulating supply, is still held at an unrealized loss despite the price stabilizing above the $60,000 area.
CEX.IO said unrealized losses remain near levels seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, suggesting that Bitcoin may not have reached a final cycle bottom. Bitcoin recently traded at $65,724, down 1.1%, while traders continued to watch whether the $64,000 support area can hold.
The warning comes as ETF outflows have slowed but not fully reversed. Analysts are however, divided over whether Bitcoin is building a base or preparing for another move lower. Wintermute also said Bitcoin’s rebound from the low-$60,000s does not yet confirm a structural bottom.
The estimate that about 10 million Bitcoin remains underwater has added pressure to the market outlook because large unrealized losses can affect investor behavior during volatile periods. When many holders remain in losses, rallies can face selling from investors seeking to exit at lower losses or break-even levels.
CEX.IO said the current loss profile resembles conditions seen in prior bear markets, including 2018 and 2022. Those periods were marked by extended uncertainty, weak liquidity, and repeated failed rebounds before broader recoveries formed.
With the recent US-Iran peace deal, Bitcoin has stabilized after testing the low-$60,000 range, but the market has not yet shown the same inflow strength that typically supports a confirmed reversal. ETF demand, stablecoin liquidity, and digital asset treasury flows remain key areas investors are watching.
Source: X
Concurrently, Wintermute said Bitcoin could remain choppy during thin summer liquidity and may still fall into the $50,000 range if capital inflows fail to return. The firm said a sustained recovery in ETF and stablecoin inflows would be an important confirmation signal.
Crypto analyst are focused on the $64,000 level as a near-term dividing line for Bitcoin’s next move. If BTC holds above that area, some analysts expect a potential recovery toward the $74,000 to $79,000 range, where CME gaps remain visible.
A loss of $64,000 would increase the risk of a retest of recent lows and could bring the $50,000 range back into focus. Some market commentary points to the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed metric near $48,000 as a longer-term reference level, since that metric has previously appeared near major Bitcoin bottoms.
Source: X
Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin bear markets often mislead both bulls and bears because rallies can last long enough to weaken bearish conviction before sharp breakdowns erase gains. He noted that Bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000 from November 2025 to January 2026 before setting new cycle lows in February, then rallied from $60,000 to $82,000 before setting new lows again in June.
That structure has kept traders cautious despite improving conditions in some macro areas. Lower oil prices and falling yields may support risk assets, but Bitcoin still needs stronger spot demand and institutional flows to confirm a broader recovery.
Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor remains focused on Bitcoin’s long-term role despite the drawdown. In a recent interview, he said Bitcoin has already won as digital capital and that the next phase will involve digital credit, digital money, digital yield, and Bitcoin-backed capital markets.
Saylor said Bitcoin-backed products could bring trillions of dollars from traditional credit and money markets into the Bitcoin ecosystem. He pointed to digital credit growing from zero to more than $11 billion in 12 months and described a broader opportunity tied to $300 trillion of credit and $30 trillion to $50 trillion of money markets.
His comments followed his BTC Prague keynote, where he said Bitcoin could move from about $70,000 to $700,000 and eventually to $7 million per coin if large pools of global capital shift into Bitcoin-backed products.
