The crypto community is abuzz with speculation about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. A survey by Bitwise shows that only 39% of U.S. financial advisers believe an ETF will be approved this year, with a majority expecting it eventually, but possibly after 2025. Meanwhile, social media is rife with rumors, fueled by suggestive tweets, hinting at an imminent announcement. However, experts like Bloomberg's James Seyffart and attorney Joe Carlasare urge caution, pointing out procedural timelines and suggesting a more realistic approval window between Jan. 8 and Jan. 10.
Low Confidence in 2024 Bitcoin ETF
The anticipation for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has been a hot topic of discussion and debate in the crypto community. However, a recent survey conducted by ETF issuer Bitwise revealed a somewhat pessimistic outlook among U.S.-based financial advisers regarding the approval of a Bitcoin ETF within 2024.
The survey, which included a group of financial advisers like registered investment advisers (RIAs), financial planners, institutional investors, and wirehouse representatives, aimed to pinpoint their expectations for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Surprisingly, only 39% of the participants believe in the possibility of an ETF approval in 2024. This figure stands in stark contrast to the optimism of some experts who are expecting the ETFs to be approved as early as Jan. 10.
Despite this skepticism, the majority of the advisers surveyed still remain hopeful a Bitcoin ETF will be approved eventually. Twenty-two percent of the respondents anticipate an approval in 2025, while 24% foresee it happening after 2025. Interestingly, 2% of the advisers had predicted an approval in 2023, which obviously did not end up happening. The responses also suggest that 87% of the advisers believe in the eventual approval of a Bitcoin ETF. On the other hand, a small but notable 12% of the respondents are of the view that an ETF will never see the light of day.
The survey also highlighted the eagerness among many advisers for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, despite their reservations about the timeline. A number of advisers expressed interest in purchasing Bitcoin (BTC) for themselves or their clients, particularly after the approval of an ETF. This sentiment was reflected in the overwhelming 88% of advisers who preferred to wait for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. before making any Bitcoin purchases.
The SEC Has no Other Choice
On the other end of the spectrum, there are people who believe the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will have no other choice but to approve Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC is facing increasing pressure to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. This sentiment was strongly echoed by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart during a recent private webinar hosted by CryptoQuant on Jan. 4.
Seyffart strongly believes that the SEC has a 90% likelihood of greenlighting the investment vehicle next week. However, he cautioned that the path to approval might not be without its hurdles. He pointed out that the SEC, having previously denied ETFs for various reasons, now finds those reasons invalidated by recent court rulings. This situation, according to Seyffart, leaves the SEC with limited options, either to invent new reasons for denial or to persuade firms to withdraw their applications, which would be very unlikely.
Seyffart based his conviction about an ETF approval on BlackRock's filing for a spot BTC ETF in June. Since this filing, SEC officials have engaged in serious discussions with asset managers in the queue for approval. These meetings have focused on addressing the regulator's concerns and requesting adjustments to the proposals, which has led many to hope that the SEC is actually considering an ETF approval.
Furthermore, Seyffart also shared his opinions about a recent report by Matrixport, which speculated on the potential rejection of all current ETF proposals. Disagreeing with this outlook, he emphasized that the concerns regarding approval requirements and Coinbase's involvement in surveillance agreements have been effectively addressed.
Between Hype and Reality
There are those who believe a Bitcoin ETF will happen, but there are those who believe it is only a matter of hours before an announcement is made. This speculation was fueled by a series of suggestive tweets and social media posts, leading to a massive increase in discussions and predictions.
A notable contribution to this speculation came from a tweet by Grayscale’s legal chief, who mentioned he was “just filling out some forms.” This cryptic message, coupled with a tweet from TechCrunch reporter Jacquelyn Melinek, has intensified the rumors that a Bitcoin ETF approval announcement is mere hours away. Melinek, in her Jan. 4 post on X , cited sources “extremely close to the matter,” suggesting that multiple ETFs could receive approval. She hinted at a possible announcement as early as today.
The hashtag #BTCETF and the term “Bitcoin ETFs” have also been trending on Twitter, reflecting the buzz and speculation among investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Bitcoin's price, which is recovering from a sharp drawdown on Jan. 3. Is also starting to climb again. At press time, BTC was worth $43,819.69 after its value rose by 1.88% over the past 24 hours of trading, according to CoinMarketCap.
Despite the growing excitement, some analysts and industry experts urge caution and a more tempered outlook. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart calls the current speculation “noise.” He maintains that the approval, if it happens, is more likely to occur between Jan. 8 and Jan. 10, rather than the immediate time frame that social media speculation suggests.
Adding to the cautious stance, attorney and commercial litigator Joe Carlasare pointed out a significant procedural detail. He noted that the public comment period for several ETF applications does not close until midnight on Jan. 5. This timeline, according to Carlasare, makes it "very unlikely" that an approval would be announced before the start of next week.
Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shed light on the SEC’s current process, explaining that the commission is providing final comments and that issuers are expected to file their final 19b-4 and S-1 forms soon afterward.
Amidst these varying opinions, Scott Johnsson, the general partner at VB Capital, also expressed his skepticism about an early approval. He, like many others, is not fully convinced that an ETF approval would be issued before the next week.
