Solana is holding near support, but analysts say the chart still lacks clear bullish confirmation. If bearish momentum continues, SOL could face another leg lower, with some traders even watching a possible move toward $20 by 2026.
Solana Holds Support, but Bears Still Control the Bigger Picture
Solana is trading near a key support zone, but the chart has yet to provide confirmation that a lasting recovery has begun, according to MCO Global.
The analysis uses Elliott Wave theory and suggests that the recent decline may not be complete. SOL found support near the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone between $61.75 and $63.05, an area where short-term bounces often emerge. However, the rebound has so far lacked the impulsive structure needed to confirm a trend reversal.
SOL/USD Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Analysis. Source: MCO Global (@moretradingonl)
According to the chart, a bullish scenario would require a clear five-wave advance followed by a breakout above $72.57, which marks a key invalidation level for the bearish outlook. Until then, MCO Global maintains that the larger corrective decline remains the preferred scenario.
If support fails to hold, the Elliott Wave count points to the possibility of another leg lower, with downside targets extending toward the mid-$40 range.
For now, the message is straightforward: a bounce is possible, but Solana has not yet done enough to prove that a broader bullish reversal is underway.
Solana Could Drop to $20 by the End of 2026, Analyst Warns
Crypto analyst Bully believes the market is underestimating how much further Solana could fall, arguing that SOL may decline to $20 by the end of 2026.
The monthly chart shows Solana trading near $66 after a prolonged decline from its recent highs above $250. The analyst highlighted a historical support zone between $15 and $25, suggesting the market could revisit this area if bearish momentum persists.
SOL/USDT Monthly Support Zone Analysis. Source: Bully (@cryptobullying)
According to the chart, SOL previously consolidated within this range during the 2022-2023 bear market before launching into a strong recovery. Bully argues that if broader market conditions weaken and investor sentiment deteriorates, the same support zone could come back into focus.
However, the bearish outlook remains a projection rather than a confirmed scenario. Solana would first need to lose its current support levels and continue making lower highs and lower lows on higher time frames.
While many investors remain optimistic about Solana's long-term prospects, the analysis serves as a reminder that major cryptocurrencies can experience deep drawdowns even during broader bull market cycles.
For now, $20 remains an aggressive downside target rather than the base-case scenario, but the chart suggests traders should not completely dismiss the possibility.
