Arthur Hayes, founder of the BitMEX exchange, says he would not invest in Bitcoin at the current moment, even though he still believes the asset could eventually reach $250,000.
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast published Tuesday on YouTube, Hayes said that if he had money to invest immediately, he would choose to wait rather than buy Bitcoin now.
He explained that Bitcoin typically reacts less to geopolitical conflict itself and more to the monetary policies that follow it.
According to Hayes, the common narrative that wars are good for Bitcoin misses the broader point. In his view, the real driver behind Bitcoin rallies is monetary expansion, particularly when central banks inject liquidity into the financial system.
Hayes added that he plans to start accumulating Bitcoin again once the U.S. Federal Reserve shifts toward easing monetary policy and liquidity begins expanding again.
Bitcoin still faces downside risk before next cycle
Hayes believes Bitcoin may not have reached its market bottom yet. At the time of publication, the cryptocurrency traded near $69,800, about 45% below its October all-time high of $126,000.
He warned that rising geopolitical tensions, including the possibility of a prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran, could increase pressure across global markets.
Such a scenario, he said, could trigger broader selloffs in both equities and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidation risks remain below $60K
If market pressure continues, Hayes suggested Bitcoin could fall below $60,000. A drop to that level could trigger a wave of liquidations among leveraged traders in the crypto market.
Bitcoin briefly approached this level earlier this year. In early February, the price dipped toward that range before stabilizing and recovering modestly.
Long term outlook remains strongly bullish
Despite his cautious stance in the short term, Hayes has not changed his broader outlook for Bitcoin.
He previously predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2026 and reaffirmed that forecast during the discussion.
Hayes also argued that the period in which Bitcoin trades below $100,000 may become increasingly limited as adoption grows and macroeconomic conditions evolve.
Other analysts remain more optimistic about the near term. Market analyst Michael van de Poppe recently pointed to the strong rise in the Nasdaq index as a signal that risk appetite may be returning to financial markets.
According to him, improving sentiment in traditional markets could support additional gains for Bitcoin and altcoins.
For Hayes, however, the key catalyst remains clear. He believes the next major Bitcoin rally will likely begin when central banks pivot toward aggressive liquidity expansion again.
