The introduction of a single 15% US tariff has unexpectedly provided relief to Brazil, China, and India, while increasing pressure on several of Washington’s closest allies, including the UK, Italy, and Singapore.
According to analysis from the Global Trade Alert platform based on trade-weighted average rate data, the shift to a flat tariff baseline has reshaped competitive dynamics across major economies.
Brazil appears to benefit the most, with its trade-weighted average rate falling by 13.6 percentage points compared to the previous framework. China sees a 7.1-point reduction, while India records a 5.6-point decline. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan also fare better relative to the earlier regime, which imposed steeper reciprocal tariffs.
Canada and Mexico maintain structural advantages under the USMCA framework, even with the 15% baseline in place.
America’s Closest Allies Face Higher Effective Rates
The outcome looks markedly different for several long-standing US allies. The UK faces an effective rate increase of 2.1 percentage points, Italy 1.7 points, and Singapore 1.1 points.
For the European Union, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Ireland, effective rates are now converging toward the global average. In practical terms, this represents a relative deterioration from the prior system, when some of these economies operated below broader tariff thresholds.
What Powers Remain After The Court Ruling
A February 20 decision by the US Supreme Court limited the administration’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a tariff tool. However, significant authority remains intact.
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 allows tariffs on national security grounds and continues to underpin duties on steel and aluminum. Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 enables targeted measures against countries accused of unfair trade practices. Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 permits rates of up to 50% against nations deemed discriminatory toward US commerce.
The temporary 15% surcharge, announced on Truth Social and enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, remains valid for 150 days unless Congress intervenes. While lawmakers hold the authority to revoke or extend it, the president retains veto power. A recent congressional vote aimed at blocking the tariff failed, increasing the likelihood that the measure will remain in effect through June.
A Transitional Phase In Global Trade
Section 301 investigations now represent a key instrument for longer-term pressure. Historically central to the US-China trade conflict during Trump’s first term, this mechanism allows targeted tariffs without strict time limits.
Existing agreements with China, the EU, and India formally remain in place. However, official language referencing “mutual compliance” leaves room for renewed disputes.
History suggests that countries facing sharper tariff shocks often adapt more quickly. Following the 2018-2019 trade war, China expanded export routes through third countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia. Now, those same economies rank among the relative beneficiaries of the flat tariff system.
The current 15% baseline may therefore represent not a final settlement, but a transitional stage. Investigations, negotiations, and legal battles are likely to define the next architecture of global trade.
