The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, exceeding economist forecasts for 70,000 and marking the strongest monthly gain in over a year. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, down from 4.4% in December, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on February 11.
This report comes after revisions to the previous year’s employment figures, which showed job growth in 2025 was weaker than initially estimated. Average monthly job gains for 2025 were revised down to just 15,000 from the previously reported 49,000, suggesting that the labor market was cooling throughout last year before regaining momentum this January.
Source: X
The data release was delayed from its original February 6 schedule due to a brief government shutdown. It follows other reports highlighting shifts in the labor market as employers adapt to a range of structural changes.
Forecast Beat Changes Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts
The stronger-than-expected job gains reduced market expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting in March. Before the report, traders had priced in a 21% chance of a rate reduction, but that number may fall further.
The Federal Reserve paused its rate-cutting cycle at the January meeting, as the Coinpaper reported, after reducing rates several times in late 2025. With the labor market now showing signs of renewed stability, officials are expected to take a more cautious stance on further monetary easing.
Yields on 10-year US Treasury notes rose five basis points to 4.20% following the data, while stock index futures climbed modestly. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.55%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.5% in early trading.
Bitcoin Recovers After Job Report Beat
Bitcoin briefly trimmed losses after the labor data release. The cryptocurrency had traded near $67,000 earlier in the day but bounced to $68,326 in the hour after the report, although it was still down around 1.67% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range around $69,000 throughout the week, with macroeconomic updates continuing to drive short-term volatility. Market watchers now expect inflation and labor data to guide price movement in the near term, especially as speculation around monetary policy decisions increases.
Crypto markets generally reacted with low volatility, as the job figures suggested continued economic resilience but did not change broader digital asset sentiment.
Manufacturing Sector Continues to Contract
Despite gains in broader employment, the manufacturing sector continued its decline. According to the ADP private employment report and separate government data, manufacturing shed 8,000 jobs in January. This marks the 32nd consecutive monthly loss for the sector.
Source: Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter reported that since the 2022 peak, US manufacturing employment has fallen by more than 400,000 jobs. In 2024 and 2025 alone, the sector lost 154,000 and 177,000 jobs, respectively. The total number of manufacturing jobs now stands at 12.483 million, the lowest since November 2021.
Sector-specific weaknesses persist due to global trade pressures, ongoing tariffs, labor shortages, and increased automation. Analysts continue to monitor whether industrial employment will stabilize later in 2026 or extend its decline further.
Economic Officials Respond to Labor Trends
Ahead of the jobs report, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett spoke about the broader trends shaping the labor market. On February 9, he told CNBC that “a productivity boom” and falling labor force growth may lead to smaller job numbers going forward.
Hassett said, “One shouldn’t panic if you see a sequence of numbers that are lower than you’re used to,” noting that strong productivity growth may offset softer hiring.
As of now, the January labor report suggests continued resilience in the US job market, even as policymakers, markets, and employers assess long-term structural changes.
