AMD Stock Forecast: 7% Premarket Fall; Is the AI Chip Rally at Risk?

AMD drops 7% in premarket trading as analysts weigh if the AI chip rally can sustain momentum amid volatility and mixed 2026 outlook.

AMD Stock Forecast: 7% Premarket Fall; Is the AI Chip Rally at Risk?

Advanced Micro Devices reported record revenue and profit for the fourth quarter of 2025. For the quarter ending Dec. 27, AMD posted about $10.3 billion in revenue, a roughly 34% increase year-over-year, driven by strong performance in its data-center and client segments. The company’s net income and free cash flow also rose significantly, reflecting broad demand for high-performance computing and AI-optimized products.

Data center revenue was a major contributor, rising sharply as demand grew for EPYC server processors and Instinct AI accelerators. AMD’s data center unit accounted for nearly 40% of total sales, supported by expanded deployments at cloud providers and enterprise customers.

In the client and gaming business, sales were up as well, with strong uptake of Ryzen CPUs and new Radeon GPUs helping diversify revenue beyond server products.

This performance positions AMD’s core computing platforms at the center of broader AI and cloud infrastructure trends.

Outlook and Guidance Signals

Alongside the results, AMD issued guidance for the first quarter of 2026. The company projected about $9.8 billion in revenue, which represents continued year-over-year growth but a slight sequential drop from Q4. That forecast reflects expectations for ongoing demand in data centers and AI computing.

Management highlighted that a portion of expected first-quarter sales includes AI-related chip shipments to China under U.S. export approvals, which helped lift the near-term outlook.

During the earnings call, CEO Lisa Su reiterated plans to expand AMD’s AI portfolio, including next-generation Instinct accelerators and integrated server platforms destined for broader cloud workloads later in the year.

Strategic Positioning and Risks

AMD’s roadmap includes efforts to drive data center growth of more than 60% annually through a combination of new hardware launches and design wins with major AI customers. New products like the forthcoming MI400 series and Helios rack-scale systems are expected to support this expansion.

However, the company faces competitive pressure in the AI chip market. Its share remains smaller than that of the leading rivals, and analysts note that sales momentum in some regions depends on regulatory conditions and customer dynamics.

In addition, semi-custom SoC revenue — tied to gaming consoles — is expected to decline as the current content cycle matures, highlighting variance across AMD’s segments.

AMD also updated its annual regulatory filings, including the latest Form 10-K annual report and related disclosures on operations and financial performance. These filings provide detailed context on revenue segments, product initiatives, and risk factors shaping the company’s trajectory into 2026. 

AMD Premarket Drop Meets Monthly Volatility Setup

Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices shares fell sharply in premarket trading on Feb. 4 after an overnight selloff, with heavy volume hitting the open and extending losses from the prior session. A Barchart chart showed AMD breaking lower through the early hours as selling pressure stayed steady into U.S. market hours.

AMD 1 Day, 5 Minute Chart. Source: Barchart via X

AMD held inside a tight band on the monthly chart, with TradingView levels marking the 1.272 and 1.414 logarithmic Fibonacci zones as the nearest technical markers. The view also plotted Bollinger Bands widening, a setup that often appears when volatility increases after a long compression.

Advanced Micro Devices Monthly Chart. Source: Cantonese Cat on X

Market commentator Cantonese Cat said the 1.272 to 1.414 area can act as a re accumulation range, and added that the broader monthly Bollinger Band expansion remains in progress. The chart showed recent swings stalling beneath the upper Fibonacci line after a sharp run up and pullback sequence.