In This Article
Bitcoin traded around $90,011 as of writing, posting gains of about 1.77% over the last 7 days and 2.34% in the last 24 hours. This price zone sits just above a level drawing intense focus across institutional markets. Bitcoin now hovers close to the realized price of US spot Bitcoin ETF holders, estimated near $86,600.
That level reflects the average entry price for ETF investors and marks a key behavioral threshold.
ETF Flows Reverse After Record Inflows
U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs experienced a sharp shift in momentum after reaching cumulative net inflows of $72.6 billion on October 10, 2025. Since that peak, net outflows totaled roughly $6.1 billion, pulling total holdings down to about $66.5 billion. This decline represents an 8.4% drawdown from all-time highs and stands as the first meaningful stress test for ETF investors since regulatory approval.
Source: CryptoQuant
The reversal followed a period when Bitcoin also set a record high near $126,200. As prices cooled, institutional appetite faced pressure, especially among investors who entered later in the cycle.
Realized Price Becomes the Psychological Pivot
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin trading near the ETF realized price, a zone that often determines short-term investor behavior. When price holds above this level, ETF holders retain a profit buffer, which historically supports steadier flows. When price slips below it, that buffer disappears, and redemptions tend to accelerate as investors reassess risk tolerance.
Analysts described this phase as a test of conviction rather than trend confirmation. With gains erased, ETF investors now decide whether to accept drawdowns or exit positions near breakeven. This moment shifts decision-making from profit-taking to capital preservation. How long will investors stay patient?
Outflows Persist, Yet Realized Price Holds
Despite the $6 billion drawdown in cumulative flows, the ETF realized price remained relatively stable and continued trending higher over recent months. This pattern suggests that investors absorbed substantial selling pressure without triggering a sharp collapse in average entry costs.
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant contributors noted that sustained outflows likely reflect distribution from less committed capital, including late-cycle entrants or short-term traders seeking to protect remaining gains. Meanwhile, longer-term holders appear to maintain positions, limiting volatility in realized price metrics.
January Data Shows Mixed ETF Demand
ETF flow data from mid-January showed consistent net outflows across most trading sessions. Only January 26 recorded net inflows, totaling just $6.8 million, while several ETF products still posted losses. This uneven activity reinforced the idea of cautious positioning rather than broad capitulation.
Source: CoinGlass
Still, industry executives pointed to signs of potential demand recovery. Bitwise European research head Andre Dragosch reported that major US wirehouses continued approving Bitcoin ETF access for thousands of financial advisors.
One such approval occurred this week, according to Dragosch, though he declined to name the firm.
Price Levels Add to Market Tension
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin recently bounced from the $86,350 support zone, aligning closely with the ETF realized price. The rebound pushed BTC toward a resistance range between $90,100 and $91,300. Market watchers now track whether the price can clear that band. Failure to do so could reopen downside risks toward $85,000.
Source: X
For now, Bitcoin trades at a line where institutional conviction faces its clearest test yet. Will ETF investors hold firm, or will flows shift from consolidation to deeper distribution? The answer may shape near-term market direction.
