USAR Stock Price Prediction: 20% Jump On $1.6B Government Funding

USAR stock surges 20%+ after $1.6B gov funding for rare earths. Trump admin eyes 10% stake as CHIPS Act cash fuels domestic supply chain push.

USAR Stock Price Prediction: 20% Jump On $1.6B Government Funding

USA Rare Earth shares surged more than 20% in pre-market trading to around $32, extending gains after a strong prior session. The rally followed confirmation that the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to back the company with a $1.6 billion financing package. 

During regular trading, USAR climbed as much as 20.6% before easing to gains near 15%, reflecting intense investor focus on domestic critical mineral supply chains. Why the sudden excitement? The scale and structure of the funding provided the answer.

Commerce Department Outlines $1.6B Financing Package

USA Rare Earth disclosed that the Department of Commerce issued a non-binding Letter of Intent under the CHIPS Act covering $277 million in proposed federal funding and a $1.3 billion senior secured loan. The agreement also involves collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy. 

Officials framed the plan as a strategic move to close supply gaps across rare earth elements essential for semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and national defense. The package positions USA Rare Earth as a cornerstone of Washington’s push to localize production from mining through magnet manufacturing.

Trump Administration Takes Equity Stake

Reports from the Financial Times indicated that the Trump administration plans to acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth as part of the broader financing. The reported purchase price reflected roughly a 30% discount to the prior Friday’s closing price, valuing the company at a fully diluted market capitalization of about $4.03 billion. 

Source: CNBC Via X

Separately, USA Rare Earth announced a $1.5 billion private placement priced at 21.50, also below the previous close. Together, the PIPE transaction and proposed government support would lift total available capital to roughly $3.1 billion.

Building a Mine-to-Magnet Platform

USA Rare Earth continues to advance its vertically integrated strategy. The company is nearing completion of a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma. In September, it acquired U.K.-based Less Common Metals, a producer that secured a U.S. Defense Department grant to expand samarium metal output. 

Samarium sits among several restricted rare earths that Beijing limited for export in April. These elements play a critical role in military hardware, including high-temperature components used in fighter jets like the F-35.

China Restrictions Add Strategic Urgency

Despite diplomatic engagement between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, export limits on medium and heavy rare earths remain in place. Materials such as gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium continue to face tight controls. 

This backdrop has elevated the strategic value of USA Rare Earth’s Round Top deposit in Texas. The company said it accelerated development plans, with commercial production now targeted for late 2028.

Peer Stocks Rally Across the Sector

USA Rare Earth’s surge lifted sentiment across the rare earth sector. MP Materials gained about 4%, while NioCorp jumped 11%. Critical Metals, Energy Fuels, and American Resources also posted solid gains. 

The moves echoed earlier government backing for MP Materials, which included a $400 million investment, long-term purchase commitments, and Pentagon loans to support heavy rare earth separation and magnet production.

Financial Outlook and Market Volatility

USA Rare Earth expects operating expenses and operating losses between $56 million and $62 million for 2025, with capital expenditures ranging from $37 million to $43 million. The stock’s recent breakout followed a volatile period marked by sharp swings. 

Over the past month, shares climbed steadily along the right side of a consolidation pattern. Rare earth equities remain highly volatile, yet the scale of federal involvement continues to reshape how markets view the sector.