Bitcoin’s on chain profit stress has returned to levels seen near past bear market exits, while the four hour Bitcoin chart shows a fresh bottoming setup near $89,000. Together, the signals point to pressure on late buyers and a market testing whether it can stabilize after the latest drop.
Bitcoin aNUPL returns to post bear market zone
Bitcoin’s adjusted unrealized profit and loss indicator has fallen back to levels last seen near prior bear market exits, according to a CryptoQuant chart shared by analyst Darkfost on X.
The chart tracks an adjusted Net Unrealized Profit Loss metric, or aNUPL, alongside BTC price from 2022 through early 2026. It shows unrealized profits and losses trending lower since the latest all time high, while price stays well above the 2022 lows.
BTC: adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss NUPL. Source: CryptoQuant / Darkfost
Darkfost said the decline suggests many late arriving buyers now sit under heavier pressure than earlier holders. As a result, the post argues that unrealized profit conditions have weakened, even as Bitcoin trades in a higher range than earlier in the cycle.
The analyst described the aNUPL as a smoothed version of NUPL that compares the realized capitalization of short term holders and long term holders against market capitalization. In the post, Darkfost said these levels often coincide with periods where holders either continue holding through drawdowns or sell into losses, which can influence whether the market shifts into a deeper downturn or stabilizes into a recovery phase.
Bitcoin chart shows possible repeat bottom pattern
Bitcoin’s four hour chart is showing a structure that resembles two earlier bottoming formations, according to a TradingView image shared by analyst Ted on X.
The BTCUSDT four hour chart from Binance highlights two prior downside phases where price carved rounded base structures before strong upside moves. In both cases, Bitcoin rallied sharply from local lows, posting gains of roughly 8% before topping out and pulling back again.
BTCUSDT 4H Chart Bottom Structures. Source: TradingView / Ted (@TedPillows)
On the current chart, Ted marked a similar rounded formation developing after a steep drop from the mid-$90,000 area toward the high-$80,000 range. Price has since stabilized near $89,000, mirroring earlier consolidation behavior seen before previous rebounds on the same timeframe.
Ted wrote that Bitcoin “could repeat the last two bottom structures,” pointing to the visual symmetry between past and present price action. The chart does not indicate confirmation, but it frames the current range as another potential base-building phase following a sharp sell-off and failed recovery attempts above $95,000.
