The bets increased after Donald Trump granted clemency to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao. SBF’s odds surged from 5.6% to 12%, with over $6.6 million staked in total, while a separate market on his potential release also spiked. However, legal experts are still very skeptical, and pointed out that SBF’s crimes involving billions in misappropriated funds differ quite a bit from CZ’s compliance-related offenses. The market excitement coincided with reports of a crypto trader profiting over $56,000 by betting on Trump’s CZ pardon—after previously making millions shorting Bitcoin before the president’s tariff announcement. The trader has been accused of insider trading, though people like Swan Desk’s Jacob King argue the outcome was predictable.
SBF Pardon Bets Spike
Polymarket bettors are now placing growing odds on the possibility that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could receive a presidential pardon before the end of 2025. The speculative surge happened after US President Donald Trump granted a full pardon to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, which caused debate over whether SBF might be next in line for clemency.
On Polymarket’s “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” market, SBF’s odds have jumped sharply from 5.6% to 12% within hours, as traders reacted to the precedent that was set by CZ’s release. Over $6.6 million has been wagered on the market so far, including more than $300,000 staked specifically on Bankman-Fried. A related market tracking whether SBF will be “released from custody in 2025” also climbed from 4.3% to 19% before correcting slightly to around 18%.
Odds of SBF getting released before the end of 2025 (Source: Polymarket)
Despite the market optimism, legal experts believe a pardon for SBF is still improbable. The disgraced FTX founder is currently appealing his 25-year prison sentence for fraud and money laundering, but the chances of any meaningful progress before year-end appear slim. A pardon from Trump, therefore, stands as his only realistic pathway to freedom in the near term, but this is a scenario that many view as politically and ethically implausible.
People in the industry were also very quick to contrast the two cases. CZ’s four-month sentence stemmed from compliance failures related to US Anti-Money Laundering rules, while SBF’s conviction involved the misappropriation of billions in customer funds. “Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers,” said crypto attorney Sasha Hodder, and added that Binance “operated as a real exchange.”
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said that he would be “truly shocked” if Trump extended a pardon to SBF, especially when considering the former FTX chief’s reputation as a Democratic mega-donor and his fall from grace in Washington.
Meanwhile, Trump justified CZ’s pardon by claiming he was “persecuted by the Biden administration” and that his actions “weren’t even a crime.”
Trader Wins Big on CZ Pardon Bet
Meanwhile, a crypto trader who previously drew attention for making millions shorting Bitcoin and Ethereum just hours before US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement has reportedly profited again. This time, however, by betting on Trump pardoning Changpeng Zhao.
According to on-chain sleuth Euan, blockchain data from Etherscan links the trader’s wallet to a Polymarket account that made more than $56,000 from correctly predicting the presidential pardon.
The trader was already suspected in crypto circles of having insider knowledge after their perfectly timed short positions ahead of Trump’s 100% China tariff announcement earlier this month. Now, the profitable wager on CZ’s pardon reignited speculation that the individual may have had access to privileged information. Well known crypto commentator Coffeezilla described the trades as “looking like obvious insider knowledge,” while another on-chain researcher, Eye, hinted that the trader “knows something we don’t know.”
Some community members also linked the wallet to former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin, who repeatedly denied any involvement. Jin refuted claims that he controlled the address used to place the high-profile trades, and explained that the funds in question belong to clients, not himself. “We run nodes and provide in-house insights for them,” Jin said in an X post, denying any ties to the Trump family or insider activity.
Others in the crypto community argued that the pardon was a foreseeable outcome rather than a secret tip-off. Swan Desk CEO Jacob King said he made almost $1 million on the same bet, and called the move “obvious” after CZ’s reported $2 billion investment into Trump’s World Liberty Financial stablecoin project.
Similarly, crypto analyst Abbas dismissed the insider trading allegations by pointing out that speculation around a Trump pardon for CZ had been circulating “forever” and was far from an unpredictable event.
