Trump Signs Russia Sanctions Law: Could $100 Crude Go Higher?

Trump signed sweeping new Russia sanctions as Russian crude tops $120. Could tighter supplies push Brent crude even further above $100?

Trump Signs Russia Sanctions Law: Could $100 Crude Go Higher?

President Donald Trump has signed sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia, adding another potential supply shock to an oil market already trading above $100.

The White House confirmed on Sept. 18 that Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, expanding sanctions, tariffs and prohibitions against Russia while extending existing measures on Iran.

Energy is at the center of the law. It targets Russia's energy sector and its so-called shadow fleet of tankers while expanding Washington's ability to pressure countries continuing to trade with Moscow.

Russian crude trades at a premium as oil prices climb.
Russian crude trades at a premium as oil prices climb.

Russian Oil Is Already Above $120

The timing is particularly important because Russian crude itself is surging.

Russia's ESPO Blend climbed above $120 a barrel this week for the first time since April as Chinese refiners competed for supply amid disruptions to Middle Eastern exports. Urals crude also reached roughly $110.

ESPO's premium over Brent has widened to a record $20-$30 per barrel, according to Reuters.

China has been buying more Russian crude as disruptions constrain alternative supplies. If new U.S. measures make those transactions more difficult or expensive, buyers could be forced into other parts of the global market.

That could intensify competition for available barrels rather than immediately lower Russian oil revenue.

$100 Oil Has Another Risk

Brent was already above $100 before the new sanctions arrived.

Coinpaper recently examined how Brent broke through $100 as Middle East supply risks intensified, while subsequent disruptions pushed crude toward $108 and revived inflation concerns across financial markets.

Saudi Arabia's loss of a key alternative export route has added another constraint, with Coinpaper examining how the disruption reduced its ability to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.