Brent crude briefly crossed $100 a barrel Tuesday, turning a month-long recovery into another major oil-market milestone as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure added a new layer of supply risk.
The global benchmark reached about $100.03, its first move above the level in roughly three months. The trigger was a series of Houthi attacks on sites in southern Saudi Arabia, including the Jazan area, where Saudi Aramco operates a refinery capable of processing roughly 400,000 barrels per day.
The move matters because Brent had spent much of the day struggling just below $100 despite a huge reduction in Middle Eastern exports. Now the market is testing whether that ceiling can become support.
Middle East Exports Are Already Down 7M Barrels a Day
The bigger story is the scale of disruption already absorbed by the market.
Middle Eastern crude shipments are running near 11 million barrels per day, down from about 18 million barrels per day before the U.S.-Iran conflict began.
Yet Brent had remained below $100 because alternative export routes, continued Hormuz traffic and rising non-OPEC production cushioned the shock.
U.S., Canadian and Guyanese supply is expected to increase by a combined 1.4 million barrels per day, while China’s large oil inventories and weaker demand have also limited price gains.
That balance is now getting harder to maintain.
Our earlier look at the $100 breakout showed how quickly Brent recovered from July lows near $72. The benchmark has now completed that move.
Goldman’s $120 Scenario Suddenly Looks More Relevant
Goldman Sachs has now raised its oil forecasts and says Brent could exceed $120 a barrel if average Gulf production in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
That is not the bank’s base case. Goldman currently expects a smaller supply deficit and sees Brent around $80 on average in 2027.
But the probability of Brent trading above $100 in March 2027 has climbed to roughly 25%, from about 6% a month ago.
OPEC+ is also offering no immediate additional relief. Seven producers agreed Sunday to keep October required production at September levels, with the next review scheduled for Oct. 4.
Coinpaper’s latest oil outlook had already identified $100 as the market’s key psychological test.
Diesel May Be the Bigger Inflation Problem
Crude is not the only market flashing stress.
European diesel crack spreads recently exceeded $100 a barrel for the first time, while wholesale diesel prices climbed toward $200 a barrel.
That matters because diesel feeds directly into trucking, agriculture, construction and freight costs.
U.S. refiners are already operating extremely hard. EIA data showed national refinery utilization at 98% in the latest week, while commercial crude inventories fell to about 424.5 million barrels.
The fresh Saudi attacks therefore arrive at a difficult moment: crude is above $100, diesel supply is unusually tight, and spare refining capacity is limited.
