Bitcoin may be trading near $76,000 today, but one long-term valuation framework puts the cryptocurrency at more than double that level by 2030 — and roughly triple it five years later.
Ned Davis Research sees Bitcoin reaching around $170,000 by 2030 and potentially $230,000 by 2035, according to analysis from chief alternatives strategist John LaForge. The projection comes as BTC trades around $76,300-$76,500 following another volatile stretch for crypto markets.
The contrast is significant. Bitcoin is still trying to stabilize after the recent CLARITY Act setback, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced renewed withdrawals. Yet LaForge’s longer-term case focuses less on short-term price action and more on how Bitcoin itself can be valued.
Seven Ways to Value Bitcoin Point Toward a Bigger Question
LaForge outlined seven approaches investors can use to think about Bitcoin’s value, including network adoption, comparisons with gold, money-supply growth, production costs, portfolio risk, adoption cycles and the widely followed stock-to-flow model.
Of those, network adoption stands out because it relies most directly on Bitcoin-specific data. That includes the number of owners, exposure through exchange-traded funds, addresses holding balances and daily active addresses.
The approach puts demand at the center of the valuation question. Instead of assuming Bitcoin becomes more valuable simply because its supply is scarce, the framework asks whether more investors are actually joining and using the network.
That distinction also makes LaForge skeptical of stock-to-flow. The popular model focuses heavily on Bitcoin’s limited supply and declining issuance, but LaForge argues that demand has not grown strongly enough to justify some of its much higher historical projections.
Bitcoin’s $75,500 Mining Cost Adds a Near-Term Twist
One of the more striking valuation measures is Bitcoin’s production cost.
A fresh CoinShares mining report estimates that listed miners faced a weighted average ex-tax cash cost of approximately $75,500 per Bitcoin in Q2. That puts the figure unusually close to BTC’s current market price.
Production cost is not a hard floor, but extended periods where Bitcoin trades below miners’ costs can create financial pressure and potentially force operators to sell reserves or reduce mining activity.
The situation is particularly relevant after Bitcoin recently tested the critical $75,000 area. It means the market is currently trading around a level that carries significance not only technically, but also for mining economics.
| Valuation approach | What it measures | Why it matters for Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Network adoption | Growth in holders, active addresses and broader Bitcoin participation | LaForge’s preferred approach because rising adoption can provide direct evidence of expanding demand |
| Gold comparison | Bitcoin’s potential value relative to gold as a scarce bearer asset | Tests how BTC could be valued if investors increasingly treat it as a “digital gold” alternative |
| Money supply | Relationship between Bitcoin and growth in global/U.S. money supply | LaForge notes Bitcoin has historically performed better when money-supply growth accelerates |
| Mining costs | Estimated cost of producing one Bitcoin | Production costs can provide a reference point for assessing whether BTC is expensive or cheap relative to miner economics |
| Portfolio risk | Bitcoin’s potential allocation based on volatility and portfolio risk | Values BTC through the amount of risk investors can reasonably allocate to the highly volatile asset |
| Adoption cycle | Bitcoin’s position along a longer-term technology/adoption curve | Estimates potential value as Bitcoin moves from early adoption toward broader institutional and investor use |
| Stock-to-flow | Existing Bitcoin supply relative to newly issued coins | Highlights Bitcoin’s scarcity, but LaForge argues it puts too much emphasis on supply and not enough on demand |
$230K Bitcoin Would Require Demand to Catch Up
The immediate backdrop remains much less bullish than the 2035 projection.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $450 million in net outflows on Sept. 15, their biggest daily withdrawal since June, before another roughly $296 million left the products on Sept. 16. The reversal follows a much stronger August, when Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52 billion in net inflows.
That tension may ultimately be the most important part of the $230,000 forecast.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply is already known. Reaching $170,000 or $230,000 would therefore depend heavily on what happens to the other side of the equation: adoption and demand.
At roughly $76,300, Bitcoin would need to rise about 123% to reach $170,000 and roughly 201% to reach $230,000. Those targets are forecasts rather than guaranteed outcomes, but Ned Davis Research’s framework offers something more useful than a standalone price call: a set of measurable factors investors can watch to determine whether Bitcoin is actually moving toward them.
