Nike has officially become the worst-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year.
NKE closed Friday at $38.40, leaving the stock down roughly 40% in 2026. Current Dow performance data places Nike at the bottom of the 30-stock index, behind IBM at roughly -21% and McDonald’s near -16%.
The collapse has also pushed Nike’s market capitalization down to just $56.97 billion, compared with roughly $264 billion at the end of 2021.
Yet Wall Street has not completely abandoned the stock.
The average 12-month analyst price target sits around $50.46, implying approximately 31% upside from Friday’s close, even though the overall consensus rating is only Neutral.
Nike Is Getting Cheaper, but for a Reason
Nike’s valuation has compressed dramatically.
The stock currently trades at roughly 18 times trailing earnings, compared with around 31 times in fiscal 2022. Its price-to-sales ratio has fallen from 4.0 to about 1.2 over the same period.
That makes the shares look inexpensive relative to Nike’s own history.
But analysts are questioning whether earnings estimates have fallen far enough.
JPMorgan downgraded Nike to Underweight in August and cut its price target to $40, warning that the financial impact of CEO Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” turnaround could weigh on profits through fiscal 2028. The bank expects a Greater China reset to create more than $1 billion of annual revenue pressure.
Truist followed with its own downgrade, lowering its target to $42 after weaker footwear trends at Dick’s Sporting Goods raised doubts about how quickly Nike’s recovery can take hold.
S&P 100 Exit Adds to the Symbolic Damage
The Dow ranking comes just as Nike suffers another status blow.
S&P Dow Jones Indices will remove Nike from the S&P 100 on Sept. 21, replacing traditional consumer names with technology companies including Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks and SanDisk.
Coinpaper’s look at the S&P 100 exit shows how far Nike has fallen from its mega-cap peak.
The stock is also roughly 78% below its November 2021 record high.
| Nike metric | Latest |
|---|---|
| 2026 return | ~−40% |
| Stock price | $38.40 |
| Market cap | $56.97B |
| Average analyst target | $50.46 |
| Implied upside | ~31% |
| Trailing P/E | ~18.3x |
The Business Is Stabilizing Unevenly
Nike’s actual business has not fallen 40%.
Fiscal 2026 revenue was $46.4 billion, flat year over year on a reported basis. Wholesale revenue grew 6%, while Nike Direct revenue fell 6% and digital sales declined 12%.
That split reflects Hill’s effort to repair relationships with retailers after Nike’s aggressive direct-to-consumer push.
Coinpaper’s earlier look at China weakness showed why the recovery remains uneven, while the stock’s 12-year low captured how rapidly investor patience has evaporated.
There is also a broader sportswear problem. Lululemon is down about 52% this year, with declining leggings sales and lost market share showing that pressure is extending beyond Nike.
Nike therefore enters an unusual setup.
It is the worst stock in the Dow, its valuation has collapsed, and analysts keep lowering forecasts.
