Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of their pre-war level, giving global energy markets some relief after months of severe disruption to one of the world’s most important crude-export routes.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that combined Gulf exports of crude oil and petroleum products have risen to about 15 million to 16 million barrels per day. That remains roughly 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below levels seen before the US-Iran conflict, but marks a substantial improvement from the lows recorded earlier this year.
Hormuz Flows Recover, but Tracking Remains Uncertain
The recovery comes after oil movements through Hormuz fell to about 5 million to 6 million barrels per day in March, when military activity and threats to commercial vessels sharply curtailed traffic.
Washington says the improvement has accelerated. US officials have recently estimated flows through the waterway at around 8 million to 10 million barrels per day. Commercial tracking services, however, have produced lower figures because some tankers are sailing without consistently transmitting identification signals, making the true volume difficult to establish.
The rebound represents a significant shift from conditions only days ago, when Hormuz shipping remained severely restricted and Brent was trading close to $95 a barrel amid expectations of tougher US sanctions on Iran.
Oil Prices Lose Part of Their War Premium
Improving Gulf exports have helped prevent the supply shock from driving crude substantially higher. Brent traded near $90 a barrel on Friday, with prices heading for a weekly decline as traders reassessed the probability of prolonged supply shortages.
The market nevertheless remains highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf. Before the conflict, Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, leaving the route central to energy pricing, shipping costs and inflation expectations.
Earlier in August, rising US inventories had already pushed crude prices lower, highlighting how traditional supply-and-demand forces continue to compete with the geopolitical risk premium.
Iran Talks Keep Supply Risk in Focus
Iran is meanwhile preparing conditions for a broader reopening of the strait. Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei has said ending the regional conflict is among Tehran’s requirements, while discussions with Oman have included plans for a shipping corridor using Iranian and Omani waters.
That leaves oil markets with a fragile balance: physical exports are improving, but a durable normalization of Hormuz traffic has yet to be secured.
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