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Crude oil prices fell on Thursday, Aug. 13, as a huge increase in U.S. inventories and weaker global demand forecasts outweighed continued supply risks in the Middle East. In a Reuters market update at 4:31 a.m. UTC, West Texas Intermediate crude was down 1.3% at $82.19 a barrel, while Brent crude fell 1.16% to $87.95.
The decline comes after several days of gains, leaving oil traders caught between two very different forces: signs that demand is weakening and the continuing risk that Middle East supply disruptions could tighten the market again.
Why Are Crude Oil Prices Falling Today?
The biggest immediate pressure is coming from U.S. inventories.
Commercial crude stocks jumped by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, according to Energy Information Administration data reported by Reuters. Analysts had expected a 1.4 million-barrel decline. It was the largest weekly increase since January 2023.
The build partly reflected unusual trade flows. U.S. crude exports dropped to 3.06 million barrels per day, their lowest since November 2025, while net crude imports rose by 1.77 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories fell by 1 million barrels, while total petroleum products supplied — a broad measure of demand — decreased by 335,000 barrels per day.
OPEC and IEA Cut Oil Demand Outlooks
Fresh demand forecasts added another bearish signal.
OPEC cut its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth to 580,000 barrels per day, its fourth straight downward revision. The International Energy Agency is considerably more cautious, forecasting that global oil demand will contract by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026.
Supply remains tight, however. The IEA expects global oil supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, leaving supply about 1.27 million barrels per day below demand. It sees an even larger 1.8 million-barrel-per-day deficit during the third quarter.
That explains why oil prices have not fallen more sharply despite the weaker demand picture.
Middle East Supply Risk Keeps Brent Supported
The main bullish risk remains the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States and Iran have made no progress toward restoring their interim agreement, while the strategic shipping route remains blocked, according to a senior Iranian source and regional authorities cited by Reuters. Before the war, the Strait handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
The IEA said Middle East production in July remained 8.3 million barrels per day below prewar levels. Renewed tanker attacks and restrictions on regional exports therefore continue to provide a floor under Brent and WTI even as demand concerns grow.
WTI Price Outlook: Can Oil Break $84.37?
The supplied weekly WTI chart shows crude at $83.03, with $84.37 acting as the immediate resistance level. The chart author, Dr. Potassium, notes that WTI briefly reached $84.61 but failed to establish a clean breakout.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart․Source: Dr. Potassium (@potassium_phd) on X
If WTI remains below $84.37, the chart points to another possible move toward the mid-$70s, with $76.73 highlighted as a key downside area. A deeper decline could put the lower gap around $69.20 back in focus.
A sustained break above $84.37 would weaken that bearish scenario. Based on the chart structure, the next major resistance area would then sit around $91-$92.
Brent Crude Outlook: $80.67 Remains the Key Bearish Level
The supplied Brent chart from ZenitTrade uses an Elliott Wave structure and identifies $80.67 as the important downside trigger.
Brent Crude Oil Elliott Wave Outlook․ Source: ZenitTrade (@zenit_trade) on X
The chart expects a corrective rebound before another possible decline. Under that scenario, a break below $80.67 would confirm the next bearish leg, while a move above $102 would invalidate the broader bearish structure.
However, this Brent chart was created on July 30, so it should be viewed as an earlier technical roadmap rather than a fresh Aug. 13 forecast. With Brent trading near $87.95 Thursday morning, the $80.67 bearish trigger has not been reached.
What Comes Next for Brent and WTI?
For now, crude oil prices face a tug-of-war. The 17.4 million-barrel U.S. inventory build, weaker OPEC demand growth forecast and IEA demand contraction estimate favor the downside, while the Strait of Hormuz crisis and reduced Middle East supply continue to limit selling pressure.
For WTI, $84.37 is the immediate technical level to watch. For Brent, geopolitical developments remain especially important: progress toward reopening the Strait could reduce the supply premium, while further disruptions could quickly put upward pressure back on oil prices.
