Bitcoin is caught between improving short-term momentum and a still-fragile long-term market structure.
According to CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain, several momentum indicators currently support a moderately bullish outlook. However, one key structural signal is enough to reverse the picture and turn the broader model bearish.
Bitcoin was trading near $64,792, up 1.59% over the previous week, as buyers attempted to extend the latest recovery.
Bitcoin Signals Remain Split
CryptoOnchain’s model tracks seven separate indicators. Four currently point to a bullish scenario, giving the market a modest positive bias.
However, the outlook changes once the realized price signal is added. According to the analyst, that single factor shifts the model into bearish territory and reduces the recommended market exposure from 100% to 30%.
The split reflects a wider conflict between short-term momentum and long-term valuation.
Price action has improved, but the underlying market structure remains weak. CryptoOnchain noted that the average purchase price across different holder groups still does not support a convincing bullish reversal.
Holder Cost Bases Point to Distribution Risk
The clearest imbalance appears between investors who bought Bitcoin one to three months ago and those who have held it for six to 12 months.
According to the analyst, the difference between the average purchase prices of these two groups has remained near minus 26.3% since January.
That means recent buyers continue to hold Bitcoin at a significantly lower cost basis than longer-term holders.
CryptoOnchain described this as a concerning signal. Even as Bitcoin recovers, the cost basis of newer market participants has not moved above that of more established holders.
Similar conditions can appear during distribution phases, when long-term holders sell into demand from newer buyers without a full structural shift in market control.
Momentum Model Favors Returns, Structural Model Limits Risk
Historical testing also highlights the difference between the two approaches.
The momentum-based model produced stronger returns during bullish periods, while the structural model focused more heavily on capital preservation.
That contrast becomes especially clear during market declines. According to CryptoOnchain, the structural model limited its maximum drawdown to around 40%, compared with approximately 76% for a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
The model also performed relatively well in 2025, generating returns of between 23% and 29%. Holding Bitcoin over the same period reportedly resulted in a loss of roughly 34.6%.
These results suggest that the structural signal may react more slowly during recoveries but offer stronger protection when market conditions deteriorate.
What Bitcoin Needs to Confirm a Stronger Recovery
CryptoOnchain described the current setup as transitional rather than decisively bullish or bearish.
Bitcoin’s rebound toward $64,800 is encouraging, but the analyst warned that the longer-term signal remains weak.
The key test will be whether the relationship between holder cost bases begins to reverse.
As long as recent buyers continue to hold Bitcoin at lower average prices than longer-term holders, the structural model may remain bearish and eventually outweigh the short-term momentum signals.
A stronger confirmation would require Bitcoin to maintain the recovery, produce higher highs, and show a more favorable shift in realized prices across major holder groups.
