As Bitcoin surpassed the $85,000 mark for the first time, the prediction market for whether an asset will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024 is pumping as well, reflecting the highest crypto greed levels in more than five months.
As of 12 am CET on November 11, the price of an individual “yes” share was $0.33. By 10 pm CET, the same share cost $0.62, corresponding to an 87% increase in odds for Bitcoin to hit the coveted $100,000 mark in less than two months. The total trading volume for the prediction market has already surpassed $2.7 million, with 62% odds of it occurring.
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market that generated a lot of buzz in the media due to the bets on the outcome of the US elections. The biggest Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris market has crossed the $3 billion mark, contributing to Polymarket’s explosive success. During the election campaign, the platform has been frequently quoted by media outlets as an alternative to traditional polling, based on the assumption that the wisdom of crowds more accurately reflects the actual sentiment when there’s skin in the game.
The broader crypto market took an unprecedented leap since the US elections, with Bitcoin soaring to $88,000 in the past 24 hours. Many in the community see Trump’s win as a positive turn for the crypto market, expecting changes in the SEC, a more favorable regulatory framework, and perhaps even a national Bitcoin reserve.
With virtually everything in the green on the market, the Bitcoin fear and greed index also shifted into euphoria. The crypto market sentiment indicator is currently in extreme greed territory after reaching 76, its highest value since June, signaling renewed optimism in the industry.
Most Polymarket users in the red
In hindsight, Polymarket indeed fared better in predicting the outcome of the election than the traditional polling agencies. While polls had been showing that Trump and Harris were within a few points of each other, Polymarket sentiment was in favor of Trump most of the time. Surprisingly, the majority of Polymarket users have actually lost money, data shows.
According to LayerHub, 88% of users on Polymarket have negative realized profit, which means that they were either on the losing side of the bet or sold their shares at a loss. Out of 378,000 unique wallets on the platform, 336,000 are in the red, with the biggest group of 250,000 wallets posting losses between $0 and $100. Only a small group of 4,000 wallets made profits exceeding $1,000, just a tad above 1% of total Polymarket users.
One example of such a lucky outlier is trader Theo4, who waged $45 million on multiple prediction markets, mostly betting his money on Trump’s victory. According to Chainalysis, the mysterious whale may have collected as much as $78.7 million based on the additional accounts that seem to belong to the same entity based on similar patterns in funding and timing of transactions.
Polymarket confirmed the earlier report by the New York Times that Theo4 is a French national with an extensive background in finance and trading who placed their bets based on personal view on the election outcome. The platform concluded that there was no evidence of market manipulation or an attempt to do so.
Nevertheless, Theo4 bets invited regulatory scrutiny from the French regulators, who are now reportedly preparing to ban Polymarket in the country. According to the local news outlet, France’s National Gaming Authority is examining the platform’s compliance with domestic gambling legislation.
While French authorities can implement technical restrictions, such as blocking Polymarket’s domain name and putting pressure on the media who link to the platform, there’s no bulletproof option that would reliably deter French nationals from betting on the platform. The website can be accessed through a VPN, and there are no KYC checks in place. This means that any user can create a crypto wallet to bet on Polymarket, which adds to regulators’ worries about potential insider trading.
Although Polymarket’s most popular bets pertain to American politics and pop culture, the platform is not available from US-based IP addresses. If registered in the US, the platform would be subject to monitoring by CFTC’s insider trading task force, a relatively new subdivision formed in 2018.
Kalshi, the first prediction market platform to legally operate in the US, launched its first elections pool in September, despite protests from CFTC. The regulator had been fighting a years-long court battle to prevent Kalshi from offering bets on the outcome of the election, citing prediction markets’ potential to undermine the integrity of elections.
Founded in 2018 by Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour, Kalshi is a New York-based startup that allows investors to bet on the anticipated outcome of a wide range of topics, including politics, economy, entertainment, and international affairs. The company raised its most recent $30 million funding in February 2021 from a series A round led by Sequoia Capital.
