NYSE Plans All-or-Nothing Options on Nvidia, Apple and Tesla as Prediction Markets Reach Record Volumes

The New York Stock Exchange is preparing to introduce all-or-nothing stock options as traditional financial institutions respond to the rapid expansion of prediction markets and growing demand for outcome-based trading.

The new contracts will allow investors to speculate on whether shares of companies such as Nvidia, Apple and Tesla close above or below predetermined prices, offering fixed payouts instead of returns tied to the size of a stock's movement.

According to Reuters, NYSE expects trading in its binary return options to begin within days of its October 27 announcement, initially covering 12 securities, including the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.

NYSE Brings All-or-Nothing Trading to Nvidia and Tesla

Unlike conventional stock options, whose value at expiration generally depends on how far the underlying share price moves beyond a strike price, binary options settle at a predetermined amount if a specified condition is satisfied.

For example, a contract could pay a fixed amount if Nvidia closes above a particular price on its expiration date. If the condition is not met, the contract expires worthless.

The structure resembles the event contracts popularized by prediction markets, where traders take positions on clearly defined outcomes.

NYSE's ambitions extend beyond stock prices.

Under a separate proposal filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the exchange wants to introduce contracts linked directly to company performance indicators, including quarterly revenue, earnings per share, cloud sales and vehicle production.

These key performance indicator, or KPI, options would settle at either $1 or zero, depending on whether the reported figure meets a specified threshold.

The concept creates another way to trade earnings announcements without relying entirely on how a stock responds afterward.

However, NYSE's KPI contracts remain subject to SEC approval. Rival Cboe has already secured authorization for comparable products, intensifying competition among established exchanges.

Kalshi's $65 Billion Record Shows Growing Demand

NYSE's expansion comes as prediction markets attract unprecedented trading activity.

Kalshi generated approximately $65 billion in October month-to-date volume, while Polymarket US reached roughly $10 billion, according to figures reported on October 28.

Both platforms exceeded their previous monthly records before October ended.

The surge reflects growing interest in contracts covering sports, political events, economic indicators and financial asset prices.

Established brokerage firms are also benefiting.

Robinhood generated $173 million in prediction revenue during the third quarter, exceeding its $120 million in cryptocurrency transaction revenue.

The company had already demonstrated the industry's commercial potential during the second quarter, when earnings from event contracts exceeded conventional equity transaction revenue by approximately 21%.

Growth is also spreading beyond sporting events.

Robinhood recently identified Bitcoin and gold as expanding categories, demonstrating demand for straightforward contracts linked to financial markets.

NYSE's planned products would bring similar outcome-based trading into the established securities-options ecosystem.

SEC Oversight Separates NYSE From Kalshi and Polymarket

Despite their similar payout structures, NYSE's proposed options and conventional prediction-market contracts operate under different regulatory frameworks.

NYSE's securities options fall under SEC oversight, while federally regulated event derivatives on platforms such as Kalshi operate under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

This distinction matters because contract design, clearing requirements and customer protections can differ depending on the regulator.

As Coinpaper's regulatory comparison explains, products offering economically similar outcomes can still face significantly different legal requirements.