Key takeaways
- Bitcoin and gold prediction contracts attract growing demand
- Robinhood's event contracts generated $156 million quarterly revenue
- Some cryptocurrency predictions now settle within fifteen minutes
Robinhood says Bitcoin, gold and crude oil are becoming some of its fastest-growing prediction markets as traders increasingly use event contracts to speculate on financial prices rather than just sports and elections.
Speaking at the NEXTPredict conference in New York on October 22, JB Mackenzie, Robinhood's vice president and general manager of futures and prediction markets, described a shift toward contracts linked to cryptocurrency and commodity prices.
According to CoinDesk's October 23 report, sports remains Robinhood's largest category, but financial-market contracts are gaining traction. The company did not disclose individual trading volumes or growth rates for Bitcoin, gold or oil predictions.
Bitcoin and Gold Bets Become a New Growth Engine
Prediction markets allow traders to take positions on specific outcomes without directly purchasing the underlying asset.
For example, a Bitcoin contract might ask whether BTC will trade above a particular price at a specified time. A correct prediction pays a fixed settlement amount, while an incorrect one can result in losing the contract's purchase price.
Robinhood initially entered the sector through its Kalshi partnership, bringing event-based contracts into its existing brokerage application.
Mackenzie said the company's largest individual event contract in September concerned the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, demonstrating that economic announcements can attract substantial trading interest.
Another striking development is the shortening duration of cryptocurrency contracts.
What began with weeklong predictions has evolved into daily markets and, in some cases, contracts that settle in just 15 minutes.
These products increasingly resemble short-term speculation traditionally associated with options and futures, although their payout structures differ.
The trend coincides with wider crypto derivatives expansion, as competing brokerages seek to attract customers interested in more frequent trading opportunities.
Robinhood Makes More From Predictions Than Crypto Trading
The shift is financially significant because prediction markets have already become one of Robinhood's largest transaction-revenue businesses.
During the second quarter of 2026, the company generated $156 million from event contracts, compared with $129 million from equity trading and $100 million from cryptocurrency transactions.
Customers traded approximately 13.6 billion event contracts during the quarter, more than ten times the year-earlier total.
Coinpaper previously examined how prediction-market revenue overtook traditional stock-trading revenue.
The result also helps explain why Robinhood is expanding beyond its original commission-free brokerage model.
While cryptocurrency trading revenue declined during the quarter, event contracts provided another source of transaction income.
Mackenzie said prediction-market users frequently explore stocks, futures, options and cryptocurrency trading after joining the platform.
That makes the business potentially valuable beyond direct contract fees, although Robinhood has not disclosed how much additional revenue these customers generate.
Could Financial Predictions Become Bigger Than Sports?
Financial contracts offer Robinhood another growth opportunity while sports-related prediction markets face legal challenges.
State regulators and tribal gaming interests have questioned whether some sports event contracts effectively operate as betting products despite being offered through federally regulated derivatives venues.
Coinpaper's prediction-market regulation analysis explains why similar contracts can face different legal treatment.
Bitcoin, gold and economic-event contracts raise different regulatory questions and are not directly equivalent to sports betting.
However, faster financial predictions introduce their own risks, particularly when contracts expire within minutes.
Mackenzie compared short-duration cryptocurrency predictions with zero-day options, noting the possibility of rapid losses.
Robinhood's broader market expansion has already attracted attention from analysts examining the company's increasingly diversified revenue sources.
