The South Korean chip giant expects third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.2 billion), up about 783% year over year, according to preliminary results. Revenue is projected at roughly 195 trillion won.
The surge is being driven primarily by an extraordinary boom in memory chips used in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Despite those numbers, Samsung shares fell after the announcement, extending a retreat that has already taken the stock well below its June peak.
AI Memory Shortage Sends Samsung Profit to a Record
Artificial intelligence servers require enormous amounts of DRAM and increasingly sophisticated high-bandwidth memory, or HBM.
Strong demand combined with tight supply has pushed memory prices sharply higher, transforming Samsung's semiconductor economics. The company is now forecasting the fourth consecutive quarter of record earnings, while its latest operating profit would exceed 100 trillion won for the first time.
Samsung is also gaining ground in HBM. Its share of that market is expected to rise from around 20% to 34% during 2026, narrowing the gap with SK Hynix.
The improvement fits a broader recovery across memory stocks. Micron has also benefited heavily from AI-driven memory demand, while Samsung and SK Hynix helped drive the KOSPI's sharp rebound from its July semiconductor selloff.
Why Is Samsung Stock Falling?
The problem is no longer whether Samsung is benefiting from AI. Investors are questioning how much of that benefit is already priced in, and whether current memory margins can last.
Conventional DRAM prices are expected to rise 10%–15% quarter over quarter, substantially slower than the roughly 60% increase seen during Q2. Analysts have also cut Samsung earnings estimates as the Korean won strengthens and concerns grow about future chip pricing.
Competition creates another risk. Chinese memory manufacturers are expanding capacity, while Samsung continues spending heavily to stay competitive in HBM and advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
The company also has weaker businesses outside memory. Reuters reported that Samsung's mobile division generated losses exceeding $1 billion, while its foundry operation remained unprofitable.
Investors have already shown how demanding expectations have become. Samsung previously fell 8.7% despite announcing a record shareholder-return plan.
