SPCX climbed 7.35% Friday to $158.96, then another 7.63% Monday to $171.09, taking the two-session gain to roughly 15.4%. Shares traded near $175 on Tuesday morning, according to Barron’s, leaving the stock around 22% below its June record of $225.64.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $300 price target, describing SpaceX as “cheap and getting cheaper” once its expected growth is included in the valuation.
Morgan Stanley Says Investors Are Using the Wrong Multiple
On conventional valuation metrics, SpaceX hardly looks cheap.
At roughly $159, the company traded at about 30 times estimated 2028 enterprise value to EBIT, versus around 16 times for a group of mega-cap AI companies. But Jonas argues the comparison changes once expected growth is included.
SpaceX trades at approximately 0.3 times 2028 EV/EBIT-to-growth, around 40% below the peer-group median of 0.5 times. Even at Morgan Stanley’s $300 target, that ratio would rise to only about 0.6 times.
The valuation argument extends an earlier AI thesis, where Morgan Stanley said investors were assigning too little value to SpaceX’s expanding computing business.
At current prices, Jonas estimates the market largely reflects SpaceX’s launch and connectivity operations while leaving a relatively modest implied value for AI.
Starship Flight 15 Is the Next Major Catalyst
Morgan Stanley believes investors have only a few weeks to position ahead of Starship Flight 15, which Jonas sees as a potentially major catalyst.
The company recently completed Flight 14, reaching low Earth orbit and deploying Starlink satellites, helping rebuild confidence after earlier development setbacks. The progress follows a summer period when launch delays contributed to pressure on SPCX.
SpaceX’s fundamentals have also strengthened. Second-quarter revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 191% to $3.54 billion. That strong earnings growth helped shares recover after falling near $105 during the summer.
