Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, said in a recent Bitcoin Magazine interview that the firm uses half of gold’s market capitalization as its medium-term “north star” for Bitcoin. At current valuations, that would imply roughly $500,000 per BTC, a level Sigel said could be reached this cycle or the next.
The argument comes as Bitcoin recovers toward the upper-$80,000 range
Bitcoin Could Still Double Against Gold
Sigel’s key observation is the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold one Bitcoin can buy.
The ratio fell to around 16–17 during the summer after previously reaching approximately 40. Sigel argued that this leaves room for Bitcoin to roughly double against gold even without assuming an unprecedented relative valuation.
That is also why the $500,000 figure should not be read as a short-term forecast. It represents the price Bitcoin could reach if its total market capitalization eventually equals roughly half of gold’s.
ETF Demand Supports the Recovery
VanEck’s thesis also comes as institutional demand improves.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $6.34 billion in Q3, their strongest quarter of 2026, after suffering roughly $5 billion of outflows in Q2. Bitcoin gained almost 43% during the same quarter. Coinpaper’s ETF data therefore support Sigel’s argument that “real money” has returned to the market.
The recovery is not risk-free. Sigel acknowledged Bitcoin remains roughly three times as volatile as gold, meaning the two assets should not necessarily carry identical portfolio weights. He also pointed to quantum computing as a long-term technical risk, although he does not consider it a reason to sell Bitcoin today.
For the near term, however, the much smaller levels matter first. Bitcoin still needs to clear the recurring $87K resistance and then $90,000 before six-figure targets become relevant.
