CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in his latest analysis that Bitcoin’s Power Law oscillator stood at +34.5 on Oct. 3, when BTC traded at about $84,700. Under the model’s current parameters, an oscillator reading of +100 corresponds to roughly $157,800, around 86% above the reference price.
That does not make $157.8K a conventional price target. Instead, it estimates where Bitcoin would trade if it returned to a historically elevated deviation from its long-term Power Law trend.
Bitcoin has since pushed back above $85,000, while our latest BTC outlook still places the important short-term resistance around $87,000–$87,300.
Why $157.8K Matters
The more interesting part of Adler’s model is not only the number, but how Bitcoin’s cycle extremes have changed.
CryptoQuant’s data show Power Law oscillator peaks falling from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025. At the same time, the standard deviation of daily oscillator changes dropped from 4.81 to 2.47, a decline of roughly 49%.
In other words, Bitcoin continues to move far above and below its long-term trend, but those deviations have become less violent over time.
The $157.8K figure would also rise if Bitcoin takes longer to reach the +100 threshold because the underlying Power Law trend itself increases over time.
$87K Still Comes First
The immediate market structure remains much less dramatic.
Bitcoin recently tested the $87,000–$87,300 area but failed to establish a sustained breakout. That same zone has repeatedly appeared in recent price analysis, making it the clearest near-term ceiling.
A convincing move through $87,300 would bring $90,000 back into focus, while holding above that psychological level could reopen the path toward $95,000–$100,000.
Institutional demand remains a supporting factor. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $6.34 billion in Q3, their strongest quarter of 2026, while BTC gained nearly 43%. More recent ETF flows remained net positive over the latest reported week despite some daily outflows.
