President Donald Trump’s promise of cheaper gasoline faces a stubborn obstacle: oil prices are rising again.
Brent crude futures traded at $105.40 a barrel at 08:03 GMT on September 24, up 2.25%, as US-Iran talks showed little progress. Meanwhile, AAA’s national gasoline average reached $4.48 a gallon, compared with $4.10 a month earlier. For drivers, that is roughly 38 cents more per gallon.
Cheaper gasoline is possible even with Brent above $100. However, a large, lasting decline would require more than a presidential prediction.
What Trump Has Actually Promised
Trump has tied lower fuel prices to an end to the Iran war. Speaking to reporters on September 9, he suggested Americans might have to wait until after November’s midterm elections.
“I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm,” he said about gasoline prices falling. That was a forecast about the conflict’s outcome, rather than an announced price reduction or a fixed timetable for relief.
Oil’s recent reversal illustrates the uncertainty. Brent touched $97.36 on Tuesday before settling at $103.08 on Wednesday. Hopes for improved supplies briefly pushed prices down, but the decline did not last.
Why Cheaper Crude Does Not Guarantee Cheaper Gas
Crude oil is only one component of the pump price. The US Energy Information Administration also identifies refining costs and profits, distribution, marketing and taxes.
Gasoline could therefore become cheaper while Brent stays above $100 if refining margins narrow, supplies improve or demand weakens. Conversely, a fall in crude can be partly offset by problems producing or delivering finished fuel.
The distinction has already appeared in Coinpaper’s coverage of falling crude and record diesel margins. Diesel and gasoline have different markets, but both demonstrate why crude prices alone cannot explain the entire fuel bill.
What Would Make Relief Last?
A more durable improvement would require steadier oil deliveries and sufficient refinery output. Restored shipping routes and fewer infrastructure disruptions could reduce supply risks, although diplomatic announcements need to translate into actual deliveries.
Earlier warnings from oil executives highlighted the pressure from disrupted supplies and depleted inventories. Those problems do not disappear when crude falls for a single session.
