NKE closed Wednesday at $35.78, down another 1.2% and roughly 53% below its 52-week high of $76.97. The stock has now lost more than 40% in 2026, turning what was once one of the market's most recognizable growth stories into a difficult turnaround.
And Wall Street thinks there could still be more downside. Morgan Stanley recently put a $31 price target on Nike, arguing that expectations for its recovery, particularly in China may be too optimistic.
Why Is Nike Stock Falling?
Nike's problems are coming from several directions at once.
Its latest quarter produced roughly $11.3 billion in revenue, but Nike Direct sales fell 4%, digital revenue declined 9%, and Converse revenue plunged 35%. Margins have also been squeezed by tariffs and promotional activity.
China remains another major problem, with Greater China Nike Brand revenue declining 7% in the latest quarter.
The pressure comes as investors are already becoming more selective about expensive consumer and technology stocks. Higher Treasury yields have pushed investors toward cash and away from equities, making weak company-specific results even harder for the market to ignore.
Nike's Turnaround Is Taking Longer
CEO Elliott Hill is trying to rebuild Nike around sports, product innovation and stronger wholesale relationships.
There are some encouraging signs. Wholesale revenue increased about 5% to $6.5 billion in the latest quarter. But investors are still waiting for that improvement to translate into a broader recovery in sales and margins.
The selloff also demonstrates why apparently positive developments don't always rescue a struggling stock. As explained in why stocks can fall even after good news, markets react to expectations about the future rather than simply whether an individual number looks good.
Is $31 Next for NKE?
Morgan Stanley's $31 target would represent another meaningful decline from Nike's current price, but Wall Street isn't unanimous. Other analysts remain more constructive on the turnaround.
That makes Nike's upcoming earnings particularly important.
Investors will be watching China sales, margins, tariffs, digital demand and wholesale growth for evidence that the decline is finally stabilizing.
The broader market isn't making that recovery any easier. The Fed has just raised rates by 25 basis points, while the Dow and S&P 500 fell following the latest rate decision.
